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Germany Telecommunications Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 124
The Germany Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's telecommunications industry.
The Q311 update on Germany's telecommunications market provides an overview of the latest developments in the country's mobile, fixed voice and broadband sectors including operator data through to the end of Q111. The report contains data analysis, regulatory updates and our forecasts. Our five-year growth forecasts depict how Germany's mobile telephony, fixed-line telephony, internet and broadband subscriber markets will develop over the next five years, and for the first time includes our five-year market share weighted and operator monthly blended ARPU forecasts.
At the time of writing, all four of Germany's mobile network operators released subscriber data for the first three months of 2011. In the three months to 31 March 2011, Vodafone Germany and KPN-owned E-Plus and O2 reported positive growth of their respective mobile customer bases, whereas German incumbent operator Deutsche Telekom reported a net loss of 120,000 subscribers, following a loss of 188,000 subscribers in Q410. T-Mobile, Deutsche Telekom's mobile operator has been migrating customers towards higher value postpaid deals and converged service deals and moved away from the subscriber acquisition model of growth, leading to subscriber losses. At the end of March 2011 Germany's mobile market had about 109.617mn subscribers, reflecting a net gain of 771,000 subscribers in the first quarter of the year. BMI estimates the total number of subscribers is equivalent to a penetration rate of 133.9%. However, we forecast that the subscriber losses that have been attributed to inactive SIM discounting and resulted in subscriber losses by T-Mobile in 2010 will be repeated, although to a less sever degree in H211. We expect Germany's three other mobile operators -- Vodafone, E-Plus and Telef nica O2 Germany -- to report inactive prepaid SIM discounting in H211 or H112.
In May 2010 three of Germany's mobile network operators -- Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone and O2 -- were awarded new mobile frequencies in the 800MHz spectrum range. Since then, all three operators have begun deploying Long Term Evolution (LTE) networks, with a view to extending mobile broadband services to remote parts of Germany. Although Germany's smallest cellco E-Plus was not awarded spectrum in the 800MHz band, it was announced in December that E-Plus had been authorised by Germany's regulator to use frequencies in the 900MHz band for mobile data transmission services. It is understood that E-Plus first plans to deploy a HSPA+ network using the 900MHz spectrum, offering maximum download speeds of 21.6Mbps. E-Plus can also use the 900MHz frequencies to roll out LTE technology, if this does not cause interference with other mobile networks.
One development which has been met with criticism among Germany's mobile network operators was the news in December that Germany's network regulator, the Federal Network Agency (FNA) proposed a 50% cut in mobile termination rates (MTRs). The move aimed to bring the fees in line with European Commission targets. Amongst other, the timing of the regulator's decision has been criticised because it coincides with preparations by the operators to invest in fourth-generation networks. Deutsche Telekom estimates that the cuts to MTRs reduced service revenues in Q111 by EUR57mn.
Our forecast for Germany's broadband subscriber sector has been increased slightly this quarter on the back of Germany's strong rebound from economic problems. We estimate Germany had 30.721mn broadband subscribers at the end of 2010, equivalent to a penetration rate of 37.6%. We predict the market will grow by about 8.7% in 2011, with penetration expected to rise to almost 41% by the end of that year. It should be noted our broadband subscriber forecast for Germany now includes mobile broadband subscribers. These are broadband subscribers who use netbooks, smartphones and USB sticks to connect to the internet wirelessly via a high-speed (3G/HSPA) network.
Germany remained in eighth position in our BMI's Business Environment Rankings table for Western Europe for this quarter. The country is at the mid-point in our table just above Italy.
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