Oman Telecommunications Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 96
The Oman Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Oman's telecommunications industry.
Oman's progress up BMI’s ratings table was halted this quarter on the back of heightened political and industry risks from the social unrest in the Middle East and North Africa region. But with relative peace returning to the country, we expect the long term impact of the crisis to be minimal. Our analysis and forecast in this quarter's report is based on regulatory and operator data for the final quarter of 2010. Meanwhile, this quarter's update sees the introduction of our five year mobile ARPU forecast. Our ARPU forecast is based on market data published by second mobile operator Nawras, which accounts for about 44.1% share of the mobile market.
Based on the latest data, it appears Oman had 1.847mn 3G subscribers at the end of 2010, equivalent to 40.5% of the entire mobile customer base. Meanwhile, in the fourth quarter of 2010, the mobile subscriber market grew by just 0.8%, according to the regulator. This was one of the slowest growth quarters ever recorded for Oman’s mobile market. BMI believes that one reason for the slow growth in Q410 was the impact a switch-off period for inactive customers would begin to be felt in the operators’ results for Q310. Although Oman’s mobile operators had not published subscriber data at the time of writing, BMI suspects at least one of them experienced negative growth in the fourth quarter of the year.
Meanwhile, in this latest update, we lowered our estimate for the number of mobile broadband subscribers. These are customers who use a 3G-enabled mobile device or USB stick to access the internet. Media reports suggested national incumbent operator Omantel had 156,000 mobile broadband subscribers on its network at the end of September 2010. Considering that alterative operator Nawras introduced its mobile broadband offering before Omantel, Nawras is understood to have an even higher number of mobile broadband subscribers on its network. BMI estimates Oman had about 388,000 mobile broadband subscribers at the end of 2010. This figure was equivalent to 89.5% of the entire broadband market.
Accounting for fixed and mobile broadband subscribers, we estimate Oman had a penetration rate of more than 15% at the end of 2010. We expect the growth of mobile broadband services to contribute to weaker growth in demand for fixed broadband alternatives. Omantel already experienced a slowdown in demand for its xDSL service. However, we note the launch of WiMAX-based broadband services by the Nawras network increased the competitiveness of the fixed broadband sector and should help stimulate further growth. Described as a Plug 'n' Play solution, Nawras’ home broadband service is based on WiMAX technology in the local loop, but supported by a national fibre-optic backbone. The Nawras Home Broadband & Voice allows customers to set up internet access at download speeds of up to 1Mbps.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Oman Mobile SWOT
Oman Wireline SWOT
Oman Political SWOT
Oman Economic SWOT
Oman Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
Middle East and Africa
Oman
Middle East And North Africa Q311 Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
ARPU
Table: Monthly Blended ARPU
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
Internet
Table: Oman Internet Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Oman Mobile Subscribers – Q410
Table: Oman Mobile Net Additions Market
Customer Divisions
ARPU
MVNOs
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Country Outlook
Mobile Banking
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Oman Mobile Market Overview
Table: Omantel
Table: Nawras
Table: Resellers
Fixed Line
Fixed Wireless
VoIP
Incumbent Privatisation
Internet
Broadband
Mobile Broadband
Wireline Contract Wins
Table: Wireline Contract Wins
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Table: Oman Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Legislation And Market Liberalisation
Regulation
Licensing And Spectrum
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players: Oman Telecoms Sector
Table: Oman Financial Indicators
Company Monitor
Ericsson
Table: Ericsson Quarterly Net Sales By Division, SEKmn
Operator Profiles
Omantel
Nawras Telecom
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Oman Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
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