Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 91
Philippines Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Philippines's oil and gas industry.
The latest Philippines Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.26% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.55% of supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average of 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.3mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. The Philippines’ share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 0.86%, while its share of production is put at 1.08%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 0.87%, with the country accounting for 0.95% of supply. Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, implying Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.
The Philippines’ real GDP growth in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 7.3%, with an average annual increase of 5.3% expected in 2010-2015. There is international oil company (IOC) and national involvement in domestic upstream activities, leading to substantial gas output growth and some modest liquids expansion. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of around 45,000b/d by 2015, with the country having pumped an estimated 32,500b/d in 2010. Beyond 2009, consumption is forecast to increase by up to 3% per annum to 2015, implying end-period demand of 374,000b/d. The import requirement would therefore be about 328,300b/d by 2015. Gas demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 4.4bcm in 2010 to 5.7bcm by 2015, with low-level imports required by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a rise in the Philippines’ oil production of 7.8%, with crude volumes peaking at 50,000b/d in 2013 before falling steadily to 35,250b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 34%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 427,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from around 4.4bcm in 2010 to a possible 8bcm by 2019/20. With demand growth of 82%, this will require up to 1bcm of imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and countryspecific projections, can be found later in this report.
The Philippines is now at sixth place in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table. The country ranks sixth, just ahead of Pakistan, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting a reasonable resource position and a better-than-average output growth outlook. The Philippines ranks 11th, between Vietnam and Hong Kong, in our downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting the modest refinery capacity expansion plans, reasonable oil and gas demand growth outlook and relatively low level of retail site intensity.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Philippines Political SWOT
Philippines Economic SWOT
Philippines Business Environment SWOT
Philippines Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Asia Pacific Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Philippines Upstream Rating – Overview
Philippines Upstream Rating – Rewards
Philippines Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Philippines Downstream Rating – Overview
Philippines Downstream Rating – Rewards
Philippines Downstream Rating – Risks
Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Philippines Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Other Energy
Table: Philippines Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Energy Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries in the Philippines
Oil Storage Facilities
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/Ports
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Philippines – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Philippines Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC)
Petron
Royal Dutch Shell
Chevron Philippines
Nido Petroleum
Kairiki Energy – Summary
PTT – Summary
Total – Summary
Otto Energy – Summary
ExxonMobil – Summary
Petro Energy – Summary
Bio-Genex Laboratories – Summary
Others – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC)
- Petron
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Chevron Philippines
- Nido Petroleum
- Kairiki Energy
- PTT
- Total
- Otto Energy
- ExxonMobil
- Petro Energy
- Bio-Genex Laboratories
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