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Turkey Defence and Security Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 87
Business Monitor International's Turkey Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's defence and security industry.
Of the 28 NATO members, Turkey has the second largest armed forces, behind only the US. This is primarily due to its geopolitical importance as a member of NATO and its strategic location in three main regions of crisis – the Balkans, the Caucasus and the Middle East. At present the number of active personnel in the armed forces in Turkey, excluding paramilitary forces, totals about 510,700. Although there are ongoing efforts for this number to be reduced, the Turkish armed forces still rank among the 10 largest armies of the world, with others including the US, China and India. In 2010 the Turkish army comprised 510,600 personnel, with the sheer size of the army posing various challenges for the military. The navy and air force are only a sixth of the size of the army at 48,000 and 60,000 respectively.
NATO’s ownership of the intervention in Libya was initially resisted by Turkey, which opposed Western military intervention in Libya. However, it was even more fiercely opposed to the notion of France assuming leadership of a coalition of the willing. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s relationship with Sarkozy has long been rocky, not least because of French opposition to Turkish membership of the EU. Erdogan was incensed when Sarkozy omitted to invite Turkey to the international conference on Libya which France convened in Paris on 19 March to try to organize political control of the operation to be launched under the UN mandate. He therefore did an about-turn and made common cause with Cameron in lobbying for NATO to assume operational command We continue to see the Turkish economy growing by 4.3% this year and forecast an average growth rate of 4.9% through to 2015 as the Turkish consumer benefits from stronger purchasing power over the coming years. However, we note that substantial headwinds are brewing, especially if the current monetary policy mix fails to pre-empt an inflationary spike stemming from still rising credit growth and soaring global commodity prices.
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