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United States Real Estate Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 65
Business Monitor International's United States Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United States's Real Estate industry.
Key Opportunities/Drivers
- After years of lacklustre performance, the US commercial property market sector is showing signs of reaching the bottom of the cycle, allowing it to begin a slow recovery. Signs of improvement in the office, industrial and retail sub-sectors are already apparent, in terms of vacancy rates and net absorption. However, this has yet to translate into better rental rates.
- The economy is broadly improving, but with deep concerns in some areas (See Risks To Outlook, below). We forecast real GDP growth of 2.9% for 2011.
- On an industry basis, demand will be driven by activity in the technology industry. Other contributing industries will be business services, energy and transport. Improved business confidence is vital to a sustained recovery in the real estate market.
- On the supply side, the lack of speculative construction since the downturn is tightening the market. As the commercial market improves, after reaching its expected turning point during 2011, demand will begin to assert itself over available supply, presenting opportunities for new developments.
Key Risks To Outlook
- If the economic recovery stalls so will the real estate market.
- Impediments to economic recovery include high energy and commodity prices; unemployment; the level of debt, both in the US and in Europe; and the US budget deficit.
- In contrast to the picture in commercial property, the residential property market not only shows no signs of recovery, but is still worsening. Prices have been falling consistently, with house prices experiencing their steepest decline for three years in Q111.
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