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OLED Lighting: An Eight-Year Market Forecast - 2010
NanoMarkets, August 2010
This report presents latest and most up-to-date projections of the OLED lighting market in volume and value terms. In addition to the core general and architectural lighting markets, the report also quantifies the likely markets for OLED lighting in automotive lighting, backlighting, signage and other applications. And it also discusses which regions of the world will ultimately account for the biggest shares of the OLED lighting market.
The main objective of this report is to provide clear numerical projections of the OLED lighting market over the next eight years. We believe the report will provide invaluable insights for marketing, product and business development managers, as well as designers at lighting/luminaire firms, OLED manufacturers, materials firms and electronics firms. It will also help inform the decisions of investors who wish to become involved in this sector.
NanoMarkets has been providing forecasts of the OLED lighting space for more than five years and was the first industry analyst firm to do so. As in the past, these projections are based on a forecasting model that takes into consideration historical patterns of growth in the lighting market and the technical improvements that we have seen in the OLED industry. However, in these forecasts we have also taken into consideration the recently announced plans of some of the leading players in this space, which we examine with a critical eye.
We have also factored into our forecasts important regulatory changes and many other trends. In addition we also include a discussion of the likely patterns for the substitution of conventional lighting by OLED lighting; a key factor in any forecast, since OLEDs represent a completely new form of lighting that won’t replace existing light bulbs and tubes on a one-to-one basis.
This report is one in a series from the firm that provides comprehensive coverage of the OLED lighting market.
E.2 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts: Three Key Segments
E.2.1 General and Architectural Lighting: Where OLED Lighting is Focused Now
E.2.2 Backlighting: Still an Opportunity?
E.2.3 Other Markets for OLED Lighting: Future Opportunities?
E.2.4 Ongoing Challenges for OLED Lighting
E.3 Announced Timetables and Roadmaps of Major OLED Lighting Manufacturers
Chapter One: Introduction: Assumptions, Drivers and Challenges
1.1 Background and Objectives of this Report
1.1.1 Scope of Forecast
1.1.2 Sources of Information
1.2 OLED Lighting: Reasons to Believe
1.3 Ongoing Challenges
1.3.1 Continuing Impact of the Recession
1.4 Announced Timetables and Roadmaps of Major OLED Lighting Manufacturers
1.4.1 Blackbody (France)
1.4.2 General Electric (U.S.)
1.4.3 Kaneka (Japan)
1.4.4 Konica Minolta (Japan)
1.4.5 Ledon (Germany)
1.4.6 LG (South Korea)
1.4.7 Lomox (U.K.)
1.4.8 Lumiotec (Japan)
1.4.9 Modistech (Korea)
1.4.10 Organic Lighting (Japan)
1.4.11 Osram (Germany)
1.4.12 Philips (Netherlands)
1.4.13 Pioneer/Mitsubishi (Japan)
1.4.14 PolyPhotonix (U.K.)
1.4.15 Universal Display (U.S.A.)
1.5 Impact of First OLED Lighting Products on our Forecasts
1.5.1 Revenues in 2010
1.5.2 The Revenue Impact of First OLED Products to be Produced in Volume
1.5.3 OLED Lights as a General Lighting Substitute
1.6 Manufacturing Assumptions
1.6.1 Printing or Classical Deposition?
1.7 Current and Future Pricing of OLED Lighting
1.8 Consumer Acceptance Assumptions and Alternative Scenarios
1.8.1 How Much Confidence Should You Have in these Forecasts?
Chapter Two: OLED General Illumination and Architectural Lighting Forecasts
2.2 Impact of Technical Achievements
2.2.1 Panel Size: Still a Long Way to Go
2.2.2 Efficiency: Getting There
2.2.3 Luminance: A Few Thousand cd/m2
2.2.4 Lifetimes: Much Variation
2.3 Eight-Year Forecast of Worldwide OLED-Based General Illumination Markets
2.3.1 Current Size of General Illumination Market: Addressable Markets for OLEDs
2.3.2 OLED Penetration Patterns for OLED-Based General Illumination
2.3.3 OLED Lighting as an Alternative to Light Bulbs and Tubes: Design Issues
2.3.4 Prices and the Impact of OLED Lifetimes on Consumer Behavior and Financial Discount Rates
2.3.5 OLED Costs and Pricing Assumptions
2.4 Eight-Year Forecast of Worldwide OLED-Based Architectural Lighting Markets
2.4.1 Forecasting Assumptions for Architectural Lighting
Chapter Three: Other Potential OLED Lighting Markets
3.1.1 Will OLEDs Ever be Good Enough for Backlighting?
3.1.2 Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Backlighting: Alternative Scenarios
3.2 Vehicular Lighting: Trains and Planes and Cars
3.2.1 Eight-Year Forecasts of Vehicular Backlighting
3.3 OLED Lighting in Signage
3.4 Other Applications for OLED Lighting
3.4.1 Healthcare Lighting
3.4.2 Specialized Industrial Lighting
3.4.3 Novelty Applications
Chapter Four: A Summing Up
4.1 Summary of Market Forecasts and Differences from our 2009 Forecasts
4.2 Speculations on the Size of Regional Markets: Europe, North America and Asia
Abbreviations and Acronyms Used in this Report
About the Author
List of Tables:
Exhibit E-1: Summary of OLED Lighting Markets ($ Millions)
Exhibit 1-1: Philips’ OLED Lighting Product Evolution Scenario.
Exhibit 1-2: Early OLED Lighting Products: The Pricing Story So Far.
Exhibit 2-1: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting for General Illumination.
Exhibit 2-2: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLEDs for Architectural Lighting.
Exhibit 3-1: OLED Backlighting Markets ($ Millions) (1)
Exhibit 3-2 Eight-Year Forecasts of OLEDs for Vehicular Lighting.
Exhibit 3-4: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting In Signage.
Exhibit 4-1: Summary of OLED Lighting Markets by Application ($ Millions)
- Blackbody (France)
- General Electric (U.S.)
- Kaneka (Japan)
- Konica Minolta (Japan)
- Ledon (Germany)
- LG (South Korea)
- Lomox (U.K.)
- Lumiotec (Japan)
- Modistech (Korea)
- Organic Lighting (Japan)
- Osram (Germany)
- Philips (Netherlands)
- Pioneer/Mitsubishi (Japan)
- PolyPhotonix (U.K.)
- Universal Display (U.S.A.)