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United States Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 112
The United States Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United States's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: The US pharmaceutical market is a refuge for the leading drugmakers. It is highly unlikely that punitive price controls, as witnessed across Europe over the past two years, will be introduced. The market is also underpinned by political stability, unlike many emerging markets, and a recovering economy. Healthcare reform places downward pressure on margins and patent expiries will compress headline growth. Unique attributes include a highly liberalised advertising environment and a culture of over-medication.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: US$327.03bn in 2010 to US$331.68bn in 2011; +1.4% growth in local currency terms.
Our forecast has been revised down moderately from Q211 due to analyst intervention.
- Healthcare: US$2,473bn in 2010 to US$2,576bn in 2011; 4.2% growth in local currency terms.
Our forecast remains unchanged.
- Medical devices:US$127.6bn in 2010 to US$133.1bn in 2011; 4.4% growth in local currency terms.
Our forecast remains unchanged.
Business Environment Rating: The US's Industry Rewards score in BMI's BERs increased from 70 in Q211 to 73 in Q311. New cuts on payroll taxes, the extension of unemployment benefits and the 2001/2003 tax cuts are a game changer for the US's economic outlook in 2011. We have raised our forecast for real GDP growth in 2011 from 2.0% to 2.8% and see modest upside risks. Our overall view is that private consumption will be stronger in 2011 than previously expected, though the overall rate of expansion will still be weaker compared with previous recoveries from recession.
Key Trends & Developments
- Teva has announced a US$6.8bn takeover of Cephalon, a US-based innovative drugmaker with net sales of US$2.81bn in 2010. The purchase continues the Israeli company's rapid expansion through M&A that it hopes will facilitate a doubling in net sales by 2015.
- In May 2011, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) stated that the number of deals struck between branded and generic drugmakers to keep generic competition off the US market rose by 60% in 2010.
BMI Economic View: Our basic view is that despite the current challenges to the global economic outlook, the US recovery will continue, but remain at a very sub-par pace compared with previous recoveries. The key risk over the coming quarters is the potential for an oil price spike amid unrest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) pushing up domestic energy prices and stifling the consumer recovery.
BMI Political View: The first US federal government shutdown since 1996 was only narrowly averted, with congressional Republicans and Democrats reaching a last-minute accord to extend government spending beyond April 8. The episode is emblematic of the friction between the two major parties over the rise in government spending and how to deal with it. On a broader scale, it is clear that the political theme in Washington until and potentially beyond elections in 2012 will be obstruction and disagreement.
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