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Japan Telecommunications Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 100
The Japan Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Japan's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s latest update on the Japan telecommunications market provides the latest mobile and 3G subscriber figures, while the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) provides the latest figures for the broadband market ended September 2010. This resulted in us revising our forecast figures for the mobile market.
There were a total of 124.095mn mobile subscribers in Japan at the end of March 2011, representing a yo- y increase of 6.6% which was roughly in line with the 5.4% rise experienced during 2010. There were 2.862mn net additions in the quarter revealing stronger-than-expected growth considering the quarterly average over the previous year was 1.6mn net additions. Further this would indicate that the impact of the Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011, did not have a significant negative effect on the overall growth of the mobile sector, while the majority of service providers spoke of having already re-established networks within the affected areas one month after the event occurred. However, the impact to mobile operators will be one of finance with NTT DoCoMo and KDDI already revealing ‘special’ net losses for the quarter ended March 2011 and additional funding required to rebuild networks.
Mostly, growth in the mobile sector was impacted by the launch of flat-rate data services and the growing prevalence of smartphone handsets that pushed up the overall number of 3G and mobile broadband subscribers reaching 118.272mn and 97.376mn, respectively by March 2011. There is the growing demand for data services, and we also expect this to have a positive impact on ARPUs, which have until recently been falling as a result of cheaper voice packets.
Therefore, by the end of 2011, we expect ARPUs to reach JPY4,867 from JPY4,807 in 2010. The launch of LTE services, starting in December 2010, should also boost ARPUs.
Meanwhile, Japan remained at the top of BMI’s Asia Pacific Business Environment Ratings table with a composite score of 76.7, which was 6.3pps ahead of Australia in second place. Japan continued to report the highest Industry Rewards score at 76, relating to its mature mobile and broadband markets, as well as entry into new areas such as LTE. This is ahead of the rest of the global market, while its limited economic and political risks have also enabled it to enjoy its leading position.
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