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Greece Shipping Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 90
The Greece Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Greece's shipping industry.
The port of Thessaloniki is set to hold the top position in Greece's maritime sector in terms of total tonnage throughput for the fourth consecutive year in 2011 after overtaking the port of Piraeus in 2008, while Piraeus will retain its position as the country's busiest container facility.
Over the mid term we project moderate growth in tonnage at the port of Thessaloniki. Piraeus has continued to recover its box volumes, as it maintained positive growth in 2010.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 port of Thessaloniki tonnage throughput forecast to decrease 0.7%, over the mid-term we project a 9% increase.
- 2011 port of Piraeus container throughput forecast to grow 4%, over the mid-term we project a 16% increase.
- 2011 total trade growth forecast at -1.61%.
Key Industry Trends
Gas Entices Angelicoussis Shipping Group Away From Crude: Greece's largest ship owner, the Angelicoussis Shipping Group, has changed an order at a Korean yard for four very large crude carriers (VLCCs), changing at least one of the vessels to a liquefied natural gas carrier (LNGC). BMI believes this strategy will pay off for the group as the liquid-bulk shipping sector is currently troubled by overcapacity, and the LNG market looks set to take off following the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan.
Paragon Boxes Up With New-Build Order Swap: Another Greek ship owner, Paragon Shipping, also changed its new-build order. The company is further diversifying its fleet away from the dry-bulk shipping sector by changing a dry bulk vessel new-build order to two box ships. Paragon Shipping is not alone in this strategy, with other Greek operators that formerly handled only dry bulk looking to boxes to add diversity to their operations.
Chinese Yards To Woo Greek Orders With US$10bn Loan Fund: Greek shipbuilders are likely to choose Chinese yards for new build orders on the back of favourable loans. Upside risk to Chinese newbuild orders, but downside for South Korean yards, which will be negatively affected, as Greek shipowners are their major clients. China and Greece have been growing closer over the past 20 months on the maritime front, and news that China is set to create an investment fund for loans to Greek ship-owners will further bind the two. Greece has a huge merchant fleet, but its ship-owners are struggling to secure funding from their traditional sources in order to expand their fleets.
Risks To Outlook
The shaky base for growth at the country's ports stems from BMI's bearish outlook for the Greek economy. Our Country Risk team views the Greek economy as remaining in a precarious state. The impact of fiscal consolidation and internal devaluation are clear to see, with unemployment in the double digits and most sectors of the economy getting severely hammered. We still expect some form of sovereign debt default, though warn that a poorly executed restructuring poses the most significant risk to the economy. The country's real GDP is estimated to contract by 3.1% in 2011.
The prospect of further spending cuts and tax hikes, ensuring more demonstrations and national strikes, creates a downside risk to our forecasts for country's ports over the medium term.
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