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India Shipping Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 100
The India Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's shipping industry.
BMI View India's shipping sector continues to expand at a frenetic pace, with a combination of increasing consumer demand and overseas trade volumes boosting shipping volumes to and from the country's ports. The country's growing trade relationship with China is expected to provide fuel for growth over the next few years, while the country is also establishing itself as an important transhipment hub on Europe-Asia trade routes. The industry remains blighted by numerous problems, however, with Q211 witnessing a flare-up in congestion at major seaports. Meanwhile, the country's shipping fleet still remains undeveloped by global standards and ill-equipped to cope with the country's surging trade needs. To make matters worse, many companies' expansion programmes are being hit by the current slump in international freight rates.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 port of JNPT tonnage throughput forecast to grow 9.2%, over the mid-term we project an 11.6% increase.
- 2011 port of Chennai container throughput forecast to grow 12%, over the mid-term we project a 13.3% increase.
- 2011 trade growth forecast at 11.3%.
Key Industry Trends
Foreign investment driving port sector expansion: India's port sector remains an attractive destination for investment, and Q211 was no exception. India's impressive economic growth is fuelling the rapid development of the country's container ports in particular, as income levels and demand for consumer goods expands. In April it was reported that APM Terminals (APMT), the terminals-operating arm of Danish shipping and oil and gas conglomerate AP Moller Maersk, had signed an agreement to set up a container-handling facility at the new private Indian port of Dhamra, located in the north-east of the country. Meanwhile, Philippines-based terminals operator International Container Terminal Services (ICTSI) also revealed that it is to make its first foray into the Indian ports sector through a recently signed agreement to develop a new container terminal in the state of Tamil Nadu.
Shipping lines adopt contrasting growth strategies: Indian shipping company Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) is to dramatically increase the size of its fleet over the next decade. Most of the vessels are tankers - oil, product, chemical and gas, making up roughly 70% of SCI's deadweight tonnage (DWT) - alongside a number of bulk tankers and container vessels. The company has now announced a plan to acquire 110 vessels over the next 10 years at an estimated cost of INR27,668 crore (US$6.13bn), which would more than double the size of the company's fleet. While one of India's major players is expanding its capacity, however, one of its major rivals, Great Eastern Shipping (GE), has announced it is to sell three very large crude carriers (VLCCs) that it has not even taken delivery of yet. The ships, each with a deadweight tonnage of 318,000 tonnes are due for delivery in Q112. They will now pass directly from the shipyard to the undisclosed buyer.
Shipbuilding industry to follow Chinese example?: India's shipbuilding sector is reportedly set to benefit from investment from SCI. The shipping line is looking
to take a minority stake in a domestic shipyard, with four shipyards in the running. Their names have not been announced as yet. SCI chairman Sabyasachi Hajara states 'we are now involved in the period of due diligence on the submitted bids and have appointed an independent consultant to assist in that'. BMI believes that SCI's interest in investing in a domestic shipyard is great news for the sector. It stands to reason that if the shipping line is set to take a stake and invest in a shipyard SCI will also patronise the facility.
Key Risks To Outlook
Internal rather than external developments provide the biggest downside risks to our India shipping forecasts. In particular, a spike in the country's inflation levels threatens to erode consumer spending power which in turn would have a negative impact on imports and port throughput. Furthermore, while a number of expansions are being made to capacity, congestion remains a major hindrance at many ports and has the potential to undermine throughput volumes during periods of heavy demand.
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