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Egypt Water Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 34
Business Monitor International's Egypt Water Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, utilities associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's water industry.
BMI View: Decision-making in Egypt has slowed dramatically during H1 2011, with the ousting of President Mubarak and his replacement by an interim, military-led, administration frustrating efforts to register progress on the main wastewater schemes that make up Egypt’s centrepiece projects as it attempts to increase water production. With the authorities’ focus firmly on shoring up the country’s finances, it has been left to the PPP Central Unit, under the new leadership of Atter Hannoura, to drive water sector development. We believe the chances of effecting progress on the Abu Rawash and 6 October City projects – the two most advanced projects – will be limited, despite the best intentions.
Though data rooms for Abu Rawash will be opened up in June, we expect slippage in the government’s long-term plan to boost that plant’s capacity by 800,000 cubic metres per day (m3/d).
Key themes to highlight for Egypt’s water sector:
- BMI has revised down its forecasts for the country’s water production stretching out to 2015. Compared to our original forecast of output of 6,440mn cubic metres (m3) for 2011, rising to 7,829mn m3 by 2015, we now see water production at a more modest 6,544mn m3 in 2011, reaching 7,520mn m3 by 2105.
- The key reason behind the scaling back of the growth in production is the weaker political climate in Cairo, with delays to the main wastewater production projects at Abu Rawash and 6 October City.
- Ethiopia has said it will not approve the Nile Basin treaty between the countries that share the Nile river water resources until elections are held in Egypt, amid heightened tensions between Addis Ababa and Cairo. Much, therefore, hinges on the outcome of the November 2011 elections.
Egypt is unlikely to experience any substantial developments in the main public private partnership (PPP)-structured water projects in Q3, although the PPP Central Unit is committed to persevering with the tendering process. The main focus area over the next six months will be the PPP unit’s efforts to keep investor interest in the major build, operate, transfer (BOT) programmes in the wastewater sector and ensure that a new post-November 2011 government will be as committed to privately financed projects as the Mubarak government was. The need to move ahead on these schemes is not a matter of choice for Cairo, but of necessity. However, the business and political cycles are likely to be out of sync until 2012 at the earliest.
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