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France Food and Drink Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 94
Business Monitor International's France Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's food and drink industry.
The global economic crisis negatively affected consumer confidence and consumer spending in France. It also exacerbated the trend towards private label products and discount retailing, and had a negative impact on consumption. BMI estimates that total food consumption in local currency terms (food and drink, excluding alcoholic drinks) registered a small increase in 2010 after stagnating in 2009. Growth is expected to pick up in 2011, with consumer price-sensitivity expected to soften as economic growth improves. However, we still expect spending cuts to begin weighing on French demand in 2012 and given less favourable base effects, we hold to our forecast for overall growth to fall to 1.7% in 2012.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 per capita food consumption = +1.2%; forecast to 2015 = +5.2%
- 2011 alcoholic drink sales = -0.2%; forecast to 2015 = -0.8%
- 2011 soft drink sales = +2.6%; forecast to 2015 = +13.1%
- 2011 mass grocery retail sales = +3.2%; forecast to 2015 = +13.1%
Key Industry Trends And Developments
General Mills Acquires 50% of Yoplait – US food group General Mills has recently announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to purchase a controlling stake in French yogurt maker Yoplait for EUR810mn. Under the agreement with co-owners private equity group PAI Partners and milk cooperative Sodiaal, General Mills acquires a 51% stake in Yoplait and a 50% stake in a related entity that holds the global rights to the Yoplait brand. Sodiaal will hold the remaining interest in both groups and the business will be governed by a supervisory board with representation from the co-operative and General Mills. In addition to securing its US licensing deal, the move gives General Mills a brand with strong potential to grow in emerging markets, where the company currently lags behind several of its key rivals. Yoplait is already distributed in Eastern Europe and Latin America and BMI believes the brand could grow exponentially with the support of a major food firm such as General Mills.
Carrefour Shelves Property Spin off/Focused on French Turnaround – Carrefour has recently shelved/postponed plans to spin off 25% of its French property assets. The plans came under heavy fire from analysts when they were revealed earlier in 2011 and BMI suggested that the moves looked like 'financial tinkering with little underlying purpose'. Instead the firm has said it will focus on the turnaround of its French division, with CEO Lars Olofsson announcing that he will take over direct supervision of the unit. The current head of the French business is to leave having been in place for just 14 months. The move highlights just how crucial it is for the firm to start performing in France. However, with suggestions that its much hyped Carrefour Planet rebranding is failing to have the required impact, BMI still believes the company has not yet identified a strategy that can deliver long-term growth to this part of the business.
Key Risk To Outlook
Eurozone debt crisis – The greatest short-term risk to the French outlook is a credit event elsewhere in the eurozone. This would elevate risk aversion toward and could destabilise the economic recovery. It would also raise questions about the fiscal solvency of other countries in the eurozone, and while France is among the bloc’s ‘core’ states, its government debt pile of over 80% of GDP in 2010 (according to our estimates) compares unfavourably even with the likes of Spain.
Faltering recovery – Another risk is that with the economic recovery still weak, the government’s plans for significant fiscal retrenchment could weigh more heavily on growth than we expect. We still expect stronger expenditure-side fiscal austerity to emerge following elections next year, which will weigh on consumption and employment prospects in 2012.
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