Greece Real Estate Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 48
Business Monitor International's Greece Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Greece's Real Estate industry.\
The Greek economy remains in a precarious state. The impact of fiscal consolidation and internal devaluation are clear to see, with unemployment in the double digits and the real estate sector, along with most sectors of the economy, seeing severe contractions.
The government announced plans to create a single land registry for all state-owned real estate assets, It is preparing a sale of state assets and real estate that could raise as much as EUR50bn (US$70bn). The sale is expected to attract strong interest from international investors due to Greece's status as a tourist destination, and could lead to the expansion of existing resorts and complexes. The assets will be grouped into portfolios for launch in 2012.
Political problems have contributed to a sharp fall in rents – in Athens, Piraeus and Thessaloniki – across all three sub-sectors (office, retail and industrial). Our sources in the three cities suggest that rental rates dropped by 20-30% across the board during 2009. Nevertheless, there is not a commercial property glut in Greece. Vacancy rates are 10% in the Piraeus office and industrial sub-sectors, but lower everywhere else. New projects that are becoming available to tenants should command superior rents.
The latest profit results for the three major listed property companies in Greece, namely Babis Vovos International Construction, LAMDA Development and PASAL Real Estate Development, have all reported losses with declining NTA – reflecting the dire economic situation in Greece and its impact on property prices.
When we interviewed our in-country sources for a second and third time, in mid- and late 2010, they indicated that rents had stopped falling. However, they also indicated that most rents will continue to decline – if only marginally – in 2011.
Nevertheless, the main issue is that, in a country where the authorities do not have the scope to devalue and where brutally austere fiscal policies will crimp domestic demand for the foreseeable future, the process of adjustment to the crisis must involve still-lower capital values and property prices. This will be the case whether or not rental rates have stopped falling.
BMI’s forecasts assume that rents will move sideways or downwards, and that there will be an even greater fall in capital values and prices. Accordingly, we are looking for net rental yields to rise gradually throughout the forecast period.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Greece Real Estate/Construction SWOT
- Greece Economic SWOT
- Greece Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
- Table: Greece’s Real Estate Market – Historic Rents, 2009 And 2010 (m2/month, EUR)
- Table: Greece’s Real Estate Market – Net Yields, 2010 And 2011 (%)
- Table: Greece’s Real Estate Market – Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid-2010
- Table: Greece’s Real Estate Market – Available And Vacant Space, Mid-2010 (m2, unless stated)
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Real Estate Outlook
- Table: Greece’s Real Estate Market – Rentals, 2010-2012 (m²/month, EUR)
- Table: Greece’s Real Estate Market – Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2015 (%)
Construction Industry Outlook
- Table: Greece Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2007-2015
- Table: Greece Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2020
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Greece – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Business Environment
- Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
- Table: Europe Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Greece’s RECBER
Greece’s Business Environment
- Table: BMI’s Business And Operation Risk Ratings
- Table: BMI’s Legal Framework Ratings
- Table: Labour Force Quality
- Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
- Table: Top Export Destinations, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Competitive Landscape
- Company Monitor
- Babis Vovos International Construction
- LAMDA Development
- PASAL Real Estate Development
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Construction Industry
- Bank Lending
- Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- Project Finance Ratings Indicators
- Table: Design And Construction Phase
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport
- Sources
- Babis Vovos International Construction
- LAMDA Development
- PASAL Real Estate Development
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