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Hungary Power Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 49
Business Monitor International's Hungary Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's power industry.
The new Hungary Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country’s power consumption will rise from 36.0TWh in 2010 to 42.0TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing average annual growth of 1.6% in 2011-2020. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a developing supply surplus, rising to 5.5TWh by 2020, assuming 2.9% average annual growth in power generation during the period. Hungarian power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 35.9TWh, having recovered somewhat from the depressed 2009 level of 33.9TWh. BMI is forecasting an average 2.6% annual increase to 40.8TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to rise by an annual average of 3.0% during the period to 2020.
We expect gas-fired power generation to climb 4.8% per annum between 2011 and 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 4.9% forecast to 2020. Gas-fired generation should therefore reach 16.0TWh by 2015 and 20.6TWh by 2020. The share of total Hungarian power generation should therefore increase from 36.3% to 43.2% by the end of the forecast period. Coal-fired generation will have accounted for 14.6% of the country’s total generation in 2010, according to BMI estimates. We expect the fuel’s market share to be 11.3% by 2015, firing a projected 4.6TWh. By 2020, coal’s share of generation is forecast at 8.0%, representing 3.8TWh.
Nuclear power generation is one of the key growth areas for the Hungarian electricity sector. Expansion of existing capacity should take generation from an estimated 14.8TWh in 2010 to at least 16.0TWh by 2015, with the nuclear share of overall generation easing to 39.6%. The Paks nuclear power plant consists of four Soviet-design second-generation VVER-440/213 reactor units. There are plans not only to expand near-term generation capacity of the reactors by 8%, but also to extend the life cycle of the reactor units by 20 years. The normal life span of the four units ends between 2012 and 2017.
Hungary is now ranked sixth behind Romania in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its limited market size, modest growth prospectsand limited progress towards the use of renewables. Country risk factors offset some of the industry weakness, but Hungary seems destined to jockey for position with Slovakia for the foreseeable future.
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