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Kazakhstan Power Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 30
Business Monitor International's Kazakhstan Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kazakhstan's power industry.
The new Kazakhstan Power Report from BMI forecasts that country’s power consumption will increase from an estimated 74.8TWh in 2010 to 119.4TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and system losses, we see theoretical surplus supply rising from 6.1TWh to 7.1TWh, assuming 4.6% average annual growth in power generation in 2011-2020.
Kazakh power generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 80.9TWh (up an assumed 2.82% from a depressed 2009). BMI is forecasting an average 4.2% annual increase to 99.4TWh by 2015. Kazakhstan’s thermal generation in 2010 is estimated at 72.5TWh. We are assuming 4.7% average annual growth to 2020.
We expect gas-fired power generation to climb 5.9% per annum between 2011 and 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 6.5% forecast to 2020. Gas-fired generation should therefore reach 12.0TWh by 2015 and almost 17.0TWh by 2020. The share of total Kazakh power generation should therefore increase from 11.2% to 13.5% by the end of the forecast period. Coal-fired generation will have accounted for 70.4% of the country’s total generation in 2010, according to BMI estimates. We expect the fuel’s market share to be 71.4% by 2015, firing a projected 70.9TWh. By 2020, coal’s share of generation is forecast at 73.1%, representing 92.5TWh.
The country is expected to get its first nuclear power plant, to be built in cooperation with Russia in the western Mangystau region. However, this is still at the early planning stages and a date for construction has not been decided. The second biggest contributor to Kazakh power generation is hydro-electricity.
According to BMI estimates, hydro generation totalled an estimated 8.5TWh in 2010 and is forecast to rise to 9.5TWh by 2015. The share of overall generation is forecast to fall from 10.5% to 9.6% over the period.
Kazakhstan is ahead of Russia and Turkey in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, having retained regional leadership. There is a combination of an unrivalled power consumption growth outlook, steady privatisation progress and a low level of energy import dependence. Country risk factors offset some of the industry strengths, but the country should remain at the top of the regional ladder.
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