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Peru Real Estate Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 49
Business Monitor International's Peru Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Peru's Real Estate industry.
Peru has one of the most favourable prospects for real estate in the world, according to the Global Commercial Property Survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors in May 2011. It is grouped at the top with Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Brazil as presenting the best opportunities.
Key factors include:
- Real GDP growth in Peru was 8.8% in 2010. We are pencilling in real GDP growth of 6.2% in 2011 and 4.9% in 2012. Economic growth has been largely driven by domestic consumption, business confidence, exports and construction. Rising prices pose a risk to an otherwise positive outlook for Peruvian economic growth.
- Peru’s office property market has bottomed out after the recession, and rents are now beginning to accelerate, posting greater gains than in 2010. The supply of class A space will increase, possibly increasing vacancy rates.
- Domestic industry is beginning to transform raw materials and generate higher value products. This movement to produce more value-added products is leading to increasing total industrial production, which is in turn spurring development of the industrial property market. Total manufacturing output is expected to grow by around 10% over 2011.
- With the surging growth of the economy, consumer spending power has increased, which is driving retail growth, and with it, the retail property sector.
- Peru ranks first in Latin America for improving business regulation, according to a report by the International Finance Corporation and the World Bank, issued in November 2010. Peru has moved up 10 places in the global ranking of 183 economies. However, according to Jones Lang LaSalle’s Global Real Estate Transparency Index 2010, Peru is ranked poorly, at 72nd out of the 81 countries surveyed for real estate transparency in 2010.
- China has made significant trade inroads into Latin America, largely as a result of its appetite for minerals. Among other partnerships in the region, China has become Peru’s second largest trading partner for imports and exports – after the US – as of December 2010.
- The election of Ollanta Humala poses downside risks to the Peruvian investment landscape; negative investor sentiment was reflected immediately after the election, with the next day stock market dropping 9%.
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