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Bahrain Telecommunications Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, May 2011, Pages: 91
This quarter's update to Bahrain's telecommunications market report incorporates data on the mobile market published by the country's two biggest mobile operators Batelco and Zain Bahrain. It also contains a maiden five-year mobile ARPU forecast for the Bahraini market. This report's outlook for the fixed-line and broadband markets in Bahrain remains unchanged this quarter mainly because no new official data has been released by the regulator since our last report.
Both established mobile operators Batelco and Zain, reported considerable subscriber losses in 2010 as they shed thousands of inactive customers signed to prepaid plans. This followed the decision by the TRA to permanently disconnect unregistered prepaid lines by the end of September 2010. Batelco and Zain's subscriber losses in Q310 and Q410 resulted in the overall net loss of 159,000 subscribers in H210. Based on figures published by Batelco and Zain, and estimates for third-ranked VIVA, this report believes there were about 1.519mn mobile subscribers in Bahrain at the end of 2010. This represented mobile penetration of 188.2%, down from 192.3% at the end of 2009 and a peak of 207.9% at the end of June 2010.
Bahrain's mobile market remains predominantly prepaid. However, the disconnection of unregistered prepaid lines at the end of 2010 has improved the subscriber mix of mobile operators in the countries. Although new prepaid offers and promotions introduced by some operators are expected to boost prepaid subscriptions again, the report believes there is greater emphasis on attracting postpaid subscribers by operators for long-term revenue growth. It is expected that the sale of high-end mobile phones and mobile data packages to be key elements of operators' postpaid subscriber growth strategy.
The regulator reported a total fixed-line base of 237,621 at the end of 2009, a figure that had fallen to 225,000 by the end of 2010. The research forecasts the number of fixed-line connections will continue to fall during our five-year forecast period, although the rate of decline will eventually slow. By the end of 2015 we forecast about 209,000 fixed-line subscriptions. This is equivalent to a penetration rate of about 24%, slightly higher than previously expected. Fixed-line incumbent Batelco claimed to have 88,500 at the end of 2010, despite some small losses during the year. The company highlights the fierce competition in the market as the reason behind its loss of subscribers. This figure includes mobile broadband customers and BMI expects the majority of the lost subscriptions actually moved to mobile broadband connections. We forecast Bahrain's broadband sector will expand by about 19.8% in 2011.
Bahrain had the biggest drop in BMI's telecoms Business Environment Ratings table this quarter, falling three places to fifth from second in the previous quarter. Bahrain's overall score also drops the most this quarter (14.4 points) following considerable downgrades in all four categories of our Business Environment Ratings table. The downgrades stemmed from falling subscriber numbers and the implications of the political unrest in that country in the first half of 2011.
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