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Iran Telecommunications Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, May 2011, Pages: 70
This quarter’s BMI Iran Telecommunications Report provides an update of the country’s mobile, internet and fixed-line forecasts following data published for the year ended 2009. Figures for 2010 remain unavailable, except from MTN Irancell, which reported on its full-year data for the period ended December 2010. The operator reported having a 44% market share, equivalent to a total of 29.743mn subscribers. The remainder of the market is made up of four other operators: market leader MCI, third-ranked operator Taliya and two smaller regional operators, all of which have not published data.
BMI estimates that, at the end of 2010, there were a total of 67.5mn subscribers, equivalent to a penetration rate of 91%. Average annual growth over the next five years ended 2015 is expected to be 8.4% with the total number of mobile subscribers reaching close to 101mn, equivalent to a penetration rate of 128%. This research believes that this includes a high proportion of inactive subscribers, given that competition among the operators remains fierce, helping to drive up prepaid subscribers. This has given rise to a blended ARPU of US$8, which remained flat over the year.
Growth across the internet market remains equally stagnant, not least of all due to high bandwidth costs, while alternative services such as WiMAX remain equally stunted. Operators such as MTN Irancell have complained of poor content and capacity as the two major reasons for the lack in take-up. The Iranian government continues to strictly monitor internet content. According to a recent report published by an American NGO, Iran offers the least internet freedom. This outlook is further compounded by news that the state is looking to create its own countrywide intranet, which looks to offer an alternative to the World Wide Web and allows the government to control content more easily.
A further reason behind the slow take-up of internet services relates to poor fixed-line infrastructure. In a market such as Iran where mobile penetration rates are above 90%, a decline in fixed-line demand is expected. However, given the lack of fixed-line coverage in rural areas, this has led TCI, the incumbent operator, to continue deploying copper networks across the country. This has boosted fixed-line demand, so that, by the end of 2009, there were a total of 25.8mn lines, following a y-o-y increase of 4%. While the remainder of our outlook expects the fixed-line sector to continue growing, should services such as VoIP services become more affordable and widespread, this could see a decline in PSTN.
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