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Bulgaria Shipping Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, May 2011, Pages: 79
The port of Varna is set to continue its growth in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput in 2011 albeit at a more moderate rate than in 2010.
Varna has a strong position to build on in 2011. The port fully recovered its pre-downturn tonnage throughput and returned to positive growth in box volumes in 2010 after a sharp fall in 2009. Over the mid term this report projects further growth both in tonnage and container throughput at the port of Varna.
Headline Industry Data:
- 2011 port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2%, over the mid-term we project a 19% increase.
- 2011 port of Varna container throughput forecast to grow 3%, over the mid-term we project a 28% increase.
- 2011 total trade growth forecast at 2.5%. Key Industry Trends
Black Sea Ports Strategy Under Review:
The expansion of Bulgaria's ports of Varna and Burgas is being reconsidered after the Bulgarian Ports Infrastructure Company (BPI) questioned the strategy of extending both ports by building new container terminals there. BPI was forced to rethink its investment plans taking into consideration growth in neighbouring Turkey's port sector together with the nautical restriction of the Bosphorus Strait, which limits access to the Black Sea.
Kremikovtzi's Assets Sold:
The production assets of Kremikovtzi steel mill, the bankruptcy of which has led to mothballing of the 2A cargo terminal at the port of Burgas, built with the help of loan from JBIC/JICA, were finally sold in a fourth auction for BGN316mn. The mill ceased coke and metals production in May 2009. An expansion project at the port of Burgas was finished in 2009 with the completion of the 2A cargo terminal.
Risks to Outlook:
The basis for modest growth at the country's ports stems from BMI's moderately positive outlook for the Bulgarian economy. Container throughput will be driven by the country's consumers, a section of the country's economy that is strengthening. The country's real GDP growth is estimated to increase to 2.6% in 2011.
A downside risk to our forecasts comes in the form of a significant slowdown in external demand, especially in the eurozone, which would have a damaging impact on Bulgaria's economic growth forecast and affect negatively the growth at the country's ports.
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