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Egypt Freight Transport Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, May 2011, Pages: 42
Global shipping continues to suffer from the glut of vessels ordered during the pre-downturn boom years. With demand still struggling to hit pre-recession levels, the three shipping sectors - container, dry and liquid bulk - are all struggling to maintain healthy rates in the face of overcapacity in the global fleet. Indexes are falling and ships are increasingly being forced to operate below breakeven rates. Huge geopolitical black swan events - the Arab spring and the Japanese disaster - have further complicated the market dynamics in the shipping sector.
Egypt has felt the full brunt of the first of these events, as the second Middle Eastern country, after Tunisia, to depose its long-standing president. The turmoil leading up to - and following - this event disrupted shipping in the country hugely. February throughput figures are yet to be released, but BMI expects levels at the country's ports to have fallen.
In terms of air freight, the Middle East is the fastest growing region in the world according to IATA data, which provides a boon to Egypt's air freight sector, although its road-haulage industry continues to be hindered by industrial disputes.
Key Industry Data:
- 2011 total tonnage throughput at Damietta forecast to grow 2.33% to 29.32mn tonnes.
- 2011 air freight throughput at Cairo Airport forecast to grow 2.12% to 287,300 tonnes.
- 2011 rail freight tonne-km forecast to grow 0.37% to reach 4.02bn tonne-km.
- 2011 Egyptian trade real growth forecast at 8.94%, revised down from 13% last quarter.
Key Industry Trends:
Canal Throughput Rises
In the first week of protests some of the worst clashes between demonstrators and police took place in the city of Suez, at the southern end of the Suez Canal. The Suez Canal Authority (SCA), however, stated on January 31 that the canal was unaffected by the protests, and had been operating as normal, with no impact on the level of traffic coming through the conduit. Abdul Ghani Mohamed Mahmoud, head of public relations at the SCA, told Zawya Dow Jones: 'The protests have no effect on the shipping traffic. The canal is secured by armed forces. No one can come near it. Everything is going as normal.'
Exports Take a Hit:
According to the Egyptian trade minister, Samiha Fawzi Ibrahim, there was a 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) fall in Egyptian exports in January, which was attributed to the curfew and strikes. The net effect of these same factors on February's exports will surely be even greater, and there must have been a fall in throughput at Egypt's ports. East Port Said's throughput was 240,890 in January 2011, up 7.12% on January 2010's 224,858. However, the February throughput figures may yet show a decline.
Logistics Companies Take a Break:
Aramex was one of a number of logistics companies that ceased operations within Egypt during the height of the political turmoil. However, when the trouble died down it was among the first to resume full operations. Samer Gharaibeh, the company's CEO in Africa, stated: 'The safety of our employees has been our number one priority throughout the current period in Egypt. After a short suspension, our operations in the country have resumed. We will continue to closely monitor developments in Egypt to ensure we are able to meet the needs of our customers while ensuring the safety of our employees.'
Key Risks to Outlook:
Egypt is still very much in a state of flux, and consequently it is too early to say what form of government will emerge once this transition is over - providing both upside and downside risk to our freight transport forecasts. Should the country descend into chaos, which seems unlikely but is nevertheless possible, there would be serious downside potential for the country's maritime, air and rail freight sectors. Alternatively, a move towards further advancing the country's free-market economy could boost Egyptian handling figures to the upside.
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