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France Power Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 42
Business Monitor International's France Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's power industry.
The new France Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 7.67% of power generation in developed markets by 2015, and to remain a net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. BMI’s developed markets power generation estimate for 2010 is 7,270 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.7% over the previous year. This report is forecasting a rise in regional generation to 7,794TWh between 2010 and 2015, representing an increase of 7.2%.
BMI estimates that thermal power generation in 2010 will have been 4,267TWh, accounting for 58.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. The forecast for 2015 is 4,448TWh, implying 4.23% growth that leaves the market share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 57.1% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. France’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 49.0TWh, or 1.15% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 1.12% of thermal generation.
For France, nuclear energy is the dominant fuel, accounting for 39.4% of estimated 2010 PED, followed by oil at 35.3%, gas at 15.5%, coal with a 4.0% share of PED and hydro-electric power with 5.1%. Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 4,023mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 7.31% growth in 2010-2015. France’s estimated 2010 market share of 6.67% is set to ease to 6.55% by 2015. France’s estimated 435TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 453TWh by 2015, with its share of the nuclear market in developed markets rising from 25.74% to 26.01% over the period.
BMI is now forecasting French real GDP growth averaging 1.78% per annum between 2010 and 2015, with the 2011 forecast being an increase of 1.40%. Population is expected to expand from 63.0mn to 63.9mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to be unchanged and up 7% respectively by 2015. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 417TWh in 2009 to 453TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a theoretical supply surplus of around 57TWh, assuming 1.6% average annual growth (2010-2015) in generation.
Between 2010 and 2020, this report is forecasting an increase in French electricity generation of 15.9%, which is in the middle of the range for the developed markets. This equates to 7.0% in the 2015-2020 period, down from 8.3% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to fall from 5.4% in 2010-2015 to 4.7%, representing 10.4% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 55% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 2% between 2010 and 2020, with nuclear demand increasing by 7%. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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