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Germany Power Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 43
Business Monitor International's Germany Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's power industry.
The new Germany Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 8.56% of power generation in the developed markets by 2015, while retaining a slight electricity supply surplus after power industry usage and system losses. BMI’s developed markets power generation estimate for 2010 is 7,270 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.7% over the previous year.
BMI are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 7,809TWh between 2011 and 2015, representing an increase of 5.73%. BMI estimates that thermal power generation in 2010 will have been 4,267TWh, accounting for 58.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. The forecast for 2015 is 4,456TWh, implying 3.19% growth that leaves the market share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 57.1% – in spite of environmental concerns that have led to the promotion of renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Germany's thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 355TWh, or 8.33% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 8.13% of thermal generation.
Oil is the dominant fuel in Germany, accounting for 38.0% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 24.7%, gas at 24.1%, nuclear energy at 10.6% and hydro-power with a 1.4% share of PED. Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 4,027mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 5.71% growth in 2011-2015. Germany's estimated 2010 market share of 7.97% is set to rise to 8.28% by 2015. Germany's estimated 140TWh of 2010 nuclear demand is forecast to increase to 148TWh by 2015, with its share of the nuclear market in developed markets rising from 8.29% to 8.51% over the period.
BMI is now forecasting German real GDP growth of 3.00% in 2011, with the 2011-2015 average being 2.02%. Population is expected to contract from 81.6mn to 80.6mn in 2011-2015 and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to rise by6% and 9% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 517TWh in 2010 to 571TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a slight supply surplus, assuming 1.7% average annual growth in generation in 2011-2015.
Between 2011 and 2020, this report is forecasting an increase in German electricity generation of 14.5%, which is near the bottom of the range for the developed markets. This equates to an increase of 7.5% in 2015- 2020, up from the expected growth rate of 6.5% in 2011-2015. PED growth is set to fall from 8.8% in 2011-2015 to 3.5% during 2015-2020, representing 12.6% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 65% in hydro-power use during 2011-2020 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to fall by 4% between 2011 and 2020, with nuclear demand falling by 24%. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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