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Italy Power Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 40
Business Monitor International's Italy Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Italy's power industry.
The new Italy Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.10% of developed markets power generation by 2015, with a sizeable supply shortfall after system losses and power industry usage. BMI’s developed markets power generation estimate for 2010 is 7,270 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.7% over the previous year. This report forecasts a rise in regional generation to 7,809TWh between 2011 and 2015, representing an increase of 5.73%.
BMI estimates that thermal power generation in 2010 was 4,267TWh, accounting for 58.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. The forecast for 2015 is 4,456TWh, implying 3.19% growth that leaves the market share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 57.1% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Italy’s thermal generation in 2010 was an estimated 234TWh, or 5.49% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 5.54% of thermal generation.
For Italy, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 44.9% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 38.4%, coal at 8.0% and hydro-power with a 6.3% share of PED. Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 4,027mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 5.71% growth in 2011-2015. Italy’s estimated 2010 market share of 4.51% is set to ease to 4.28% by 2015. Italy’s estimated 46.5TWh of hydro demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 48.0TWh by 2015, with its share of the developed markets hydro market easing from 4.81% to 4.59% over the period.
BMI is now forecasting 1.7% Italian real GDP growth between 2011 and 2015, and the 2011 assumption is a rise of 1.6%. Population is expected to expand slightly from 60.6mn to 60.8mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase by 7% and 8% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 296TWh in 2010 to 325TWh by the end of the forecast period. BMI are assuming 1.5% average annual growth in 2011-2015 power generation, leaving a potential 49TWh supply shortfall after system losses etc.
Between 2011 and 2020, this report forecasts an increase in Italian electricity generation of 17.8%, which is towards the middle of the range for the developed markets. This equates to 11.0% in the 2015-2020 period, up from 6.1% in 2011-2015. PED growth is set to rise from 4.3% in 2011-2015 to 5.9% during 2014-2020, representing 10.5% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 20% in hydro-power use during 2011-2020 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 17% between 2011 and 2020. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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