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Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 63
Business Monitor International's Belgium Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Belgium's oil and gas industry.
The new Belgium Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.11% of developed European regional oil demand by 2015, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption was an estimated 13.02mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It is set to recover to around 13.18mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 4.40mn b/d in 2011. It is set to fall to just 3.53mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. Net crude imports were an estimated 8.62mn b/d in 2010 and are expected to reach 9.65mn b/d in 2015. Norway will remain the region’s only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer.
The Developed Europe region consumed an estimated 416.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in 2010, with demand of 457.1bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.7% growth. Production of an estimated 255.7bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 254.0bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 160.8bcm to some 203.1bcm by the end of the period. Belgium’s share of gas consumption in 2010 is estimated at 4.20%, while it made no contribution to production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 4.02%.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.
BMI calculates Belgian real GDP to have risen by 1.9% in 2010. We forecast average annual growth of 1.9% in 2011-2015. Oil demand is expected to have recovered only slightly in 2010, before rising slowly to reach 805,000b/d by 2015. From an estimated 17.5bcm in 2010, we expect to see gas demand rise to a minimum of 18.4bcm by 2015, all met by increased pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Belgian oil and gas liquids consumption of 1.90%, with volumes rising slowly from an estimated 785,000b/d in 2010 to a peak of 805,000b/d by 2015/16. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 17.5bcm to 19.3bcm by 2020, all based on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. According to BMI’s country risk team, Belgium’s long-term political risk score is 80.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 65.9, just below the Developed Markets average of 67.2, but above the global average of 52.9. Belgium has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is no upstream oil and gas segment but downstream oil and gas features a mixture of international oil companies (IOCs) and former state companies now in foreign hands. Both the gas and power markets are open to competition.
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