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Norway Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 92
Business Monitor International's Norway Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Norway's oil and gas industry.
The latest Norway Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 1.68% of Developed Europe regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing 53.14% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption in 2010 was an estimated 13.02mn barrels per day (b/d). It is set to recover to around 13.18mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 4.40mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.53mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2010, net crude imports were an estimated 8.62mn b/d. By 2015, they are expected to have reached 9.65mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2010 consumed an estimated 416.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 457.1bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.7% growth. Production of an estimated 255.7bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 254.0bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 160.8bcm to some 203.1bcm by the end of the period. Norway’s share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 0.98%, while it will have contributed around 41.62% to production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 0.98%, with a 45.66% contribution to regional supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.
BMI assumes that Norwegian real GDP rose by 0.4% in 2010. We are forecasting 2.1% average annual growth in 2011-2015. Recent (January 2011) Norwegian oil and liquids production has averaged 2.15mn b/d. We expect the country’s 2011 oil and liquids production to be about 2.16mn b/d, down from an estimated 2.20mn b/d in 2010. By 2015, liquids volumes look set to slip to 1.88mn b/d. Oil demand could rise to 222,000b/d by 2015, implying that net exports will slip from an estimated 1.99mn b/d in 2010 to 1.65mn b/d by the end of the period. Estimated 2010 gas production of 106bcm should continue to rise towards at least 116bcm by 2015. Rising domestic gas consumption, from an estimated 4.1bcm to 4.5bcm over 2010-2015, suggests that net exports will rise to 111.5bcm by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a decline in Norwegian oil production of 29.6%, with output slipping steadily from an estimated 2.20mn b/d in 2010 to 1.55mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given a mere 1.90% increase in oil consumption over the period, exports slide from 1.99mn b/d to 1.34mn b/d by 2020. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 106bcm to a peak of 116bcm in 2015, before falling to 100bcm by 2020. Most exports will continue to be in the form of pipeline gas, with some liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Norway’s long-term political risk score is 98.0 out of 100, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 71.7, above the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. There is a partly privatised energy sector, with government majority ownership of the national oil company Statoil, formed in 2007 through a merger of Statoil and the oil and gas interests of Norsk Hydro. Norway has a major, but mature and highly competitive, upstream oil and gas segment, featuring most key national and international companies. The downstream oil segment is small, open to competition and deregulated.
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