Ukraine Metals Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 51
Business Monitor International's Ukraine Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ukraine's metals industry.
Ukrainian steel production growth will be more subdued in 2011 following strong growth last year, while cost pressures caused by the rising prices of gas and scrap will continue to erode margins. Ukraine’s crude steel output totalled 33.56mn tonnes in 2010, up 12.8%, which was higher than the 32.60mn tonnes BMI had estimated. Finished steel production grew 9.0% to 29.20mn tonnes, pig iron was up 6.5% to 27.35mn tonnes and coke output rose 6.8% to 18.58mn tonnes. While growth was strong, crude output was still 22% down on 2007 pre-crisis levels. At the same time, the metallurgical sector registered a total loss of UAH3.84bn (US$490mn), although losses were 60% down on the previous year. According to preliminary data, in the January-February period of 2011 Ukraine registered a 13% year-onyear (y-o-y) increase in its finished steel product output to 4.90mn tonnes and 9% growth in crude steel output to 5.54mn tonnes. In addition, its pig iron output growth 4% to 4.62mn tonnes and coke production growth of 10% to 3.16mn tonnes. Production of steel pipes was up 66% to 348,000 tonnes. BMI believes that, based on a decline in growth both in export and domestic markets, crude output will be around 36mn tonnes, representing growth of 7.2%, while hot-rolled output is set to rise 9.0% to 29.85mn tonnes.
The cost of production of steel in Ukraine grew 40% y-o-y to US$137/tonne by end-2010. Domestic iron ore prices grew 96%, coal increased 77% and scrap rose 55%. Metallurgprom has warned that the country’s steelmakers are likely to see their annual production costs increase by a further UAH3.4bn (US$427mn) due to higher natural gas prices, iron ore and coking coal prices. On the upside, the price of gas sold to the EU will rise by a larger amount, giving Ukrainian producers some leeway in passing on higher costs to consumers without undermining competitiveness.
Pressure on the hryvnia will also improve the competitiveness of the steel industry, although this will largely benefit blast furnaces reliant on locally mined iron ore. EAFs will be in competition for scrap feedstock, which is becoming more expensive. High costs prompted the Electrostal EAF plant to temporarily halt production due to high domestic scrap prices in February while the Donetsk Electrometallurgical Plant (DEMZ) began importing scrap from Kazakhstan to offset the cost of more expensive domestic scrap. Meanwhile, the prospect of shortages prompted steelmaker Dneprovsky Iron and Steel Works (DMKD) to seek alternatives such as hot briquetted iron. High scrap prices were expected to be short term, but demonstrate the pressures on producer margins, particularly EAFs. In 2012, Interpipe will commission its new electric steelmaking plant which will require about 1.4mn tonnes per annum (tpa) of scrap. As a result, Ukraine is expected to see a shortage of around 700,000-800,000tpa of scrap on the domestic market, a situation that could push up costs. This will represent an enormous increase in scrap imports, which are typically under 100,000tpa.
Although we expect a full recovery in aluminium by 2015, this is dependent on RusAl maintaining its operations in Ukraine. Debt-ridden RusAl indicated even before the financial crisis that it may close the 130,000tpa Zaporizhsky Alyuminievy Kombinat (Zalk) smelter as it was unprofitable to keep it running due to high electricity prices. Output from the smelter has declined from 112,800 tonnes in 2008 to 50,000 tonnes in 2009 and just 25,000 tonnes in 2010. In January 2011, RusAl said that the loss-making plant could close permanently or sold off, but said a decision would be based on the Ukrainian government’s decision on power tariffs. However, the new government of President Yanukovych has stated that it will maintain the policy of the previous government and refuse to cut prices for ZALK. Until RusAl announces that it will close Zalk, BMI forecasts a return to full capacity within five years.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Ukraine Political SWOT
Ukraine Economic SWOT
Ukraine Business Environment SWOT
Global Market Overview
Steel To Average US$580/Tonne In 2011
Table: BMI’s Steel Forecasts
Table: Steel Prices (US$m/t)
Commodity Strategy – Metals Update
Aluminium
Copper
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
Gold
Regional Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Steel
Aluminium
Table: Ukraine’s Metals Industry (‘000 tonnes unless stated) 2007-2015
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Ukraine – GDP By Expenditure, 2006-2015
Competitive Landscape
Aluminium
Steel
Company Profiles
ArcelorMittal Kryviy Rih
RusAl
Azovstal
Zaporizhstal
Global Assumptions, Q211
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Developed States
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Market’s GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Consensus Forecasts
Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012
Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Cross Checks
- ArcelorMittal Kryviy Rih
- RusAl
- Azovstal
- Zaporizhstal
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