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Denmark Telecommunications Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 98
Business Monitor International's Denmark Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Denmark's telecommunications industry.
BMI's Q211 update to Denmark's telecoms market report incorporate latest market data published by Denmark’s regulator, National IT and Telecom Agency (NITA, or IT- og Telestyrelsen), which relate to the end of June 2010 and YE10 operational and financial data published by the country's main telecoms service providers. The five-year growth forecasts for the Danish mobile, fixed line and internet sectors is based on data published by Denmark’s fixed-line incumbent operator, the country’s largest mobile operator TDC and alternative telecoms service providers Telenor Denmark, which is owned by Norway’s Telenor Group, Telia Denmark, which is owned by Sweden/Finland’s TeliaSonera and Hutchison 3 Denmark, which is owned by Hong Kong’s Hutchison Whampoa.
Based on data published by the country’s mobile operators, BMI calculates that Denmark’s mobile subscriber base shrank by 1.68% in 2010 to reach 6.727mn at the end of the year. The loss of customers during the year reflects moves by the sector’s leading operators to deduct inactive prepaid customers from their networks. BMI believes that 2008 and 2009 saw an expansion in the number of inactive SIM cards as a result of a proliferation of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) within the sector. BMI’s latest forecast for Denmark’s mobile market assumes that the resale/MVNO sector will fuel growth over the next few years. However, it also assumes that the market will see further moves by the operators to deduct inactive customers. The report has reined in the five-year growth forecast for the mobile market in view subscriber losses in 2010. Over the next five years, BMI envisages annual average growth of just 0.4%, slightly down from previous expectation of 0.9%. By the end of 2015, this report predicts there will be about 6.850mn mobile subscribers in Denmark, giving the country a penetration rate of around 122%.
Following the allocation of LTE licences to Denmark's mobile operators, the country’s leading mobile operators have stepped up plans to commercially introduce LTE services. In December 2010, TeliaSonera launched the first LTE service in Denmark. The service covers Copenhagen, Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg and the company intends to cover 75% of the population by the end of 2011. Rival operators, keen to get in the LTE market, plan to roll out services before the end of 2011.
Meanwhile, the market for traditional fixed-line services based on PSTN and ISDN technology has been shrinking. YE10 subscriber figures published by the operators show a contraction in fixed line subscriptions in 2010. The decline of the fixed-line market has been driven by the growing use of substitute services such as VoIP and mobile broadband. Over the next five years, this report predicts that Denmark’s fixed-line market will shrink at annual average growth of 13.9%. By the end of 2015, BMI expects penetration to have fallen to 17.5%. Denmark's fixed broadband market appears to heading for a downtrend with TDC and Telenor reporting subscriber net losses in 2010. BMI believes the decline in fixed broadband subscriptions is the result of increased use of wireless broadband access technologies, including 3G and WiMAX.
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