North Africa Telecommunications Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 84
Business Monitor International's North Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on North Africa's telecommunications industry.
The Q211 update of BMI's North Africa Telecommunications Report was written at a time of tumultuous political upheaval in the wider Middle East and North African region, with Tunisia's government being summarily replaced and unrest in Libya quickly escalating into outright revolution, which is likely to develop into a protracted civil war. Algeria, too, has the potential to become caught up in this infectious desire for regime change, though the situation there was less volatile at the time of writing. Morocco, by contrast, continues to be largely unaffected. A note of uncertainty therefore pervades the forecasts and business environment analyses for the region.
The installation of more open and progressive governments in Tunisia and Libya would be welcomed as it would hopefully open up these markets to more competition and attract a great deal of much-needed investment from foreign companies with the technological and marketing experience needed to make broadband services more widely available.
The new regimes will hopefully see the value in accelerating tentative plans already in place to private state utilities, such as fixed network operators and key mobile network operators. Foreign investment would certainly go a long way towards assisting their economic development. But there can be no certainties just now. The new regimes leveraged the power of the mobile phone and the internet to drive their revolutions; they will just as likely crack down on those resources while they consolidate their hold on power.
The disruptions – along with the protracted renationalisation of Algerian mobile operator Djezzy and the rather swifter sequestration of the former Tunisian government's 51% stake in newcomer Orange Tunisia – mean that key data for Q410 had not been published at the time of writing. Therefore, some of the analysis is more than usually reliant on estimates and is subject to change.
What is clear is that Morocco's mobile and broadband markets grew much faster in Q410 than BMI had been expecting, a result of intensifying price competition and product bundling. This report has made some substantial upward revisions to the mobile market forecasts for Morocco (and now envisage there being 35.1mn subscribers by 2015) and some less dynamic upward revisions to the country's broadband forecasts (now being driven by 3G mobile broadband adoption). The country's fixed line market continues to demonstrate fluctuating consumer interest in more traditional connections.
France Télécom recently entered the Moroccan market through the purchase of a 40% stake in mobile operator Meditel. This follows on from its launch as a 3G operator in Tunisia and, once Orascom Telecom sells its stake in Djezzy to the Algerian government, it could look to consolidate its North African footprint by making a strategic investment in the business. However, the Algerian government has proved itself to be somewhat hostile to foreign investors (viz. its persecution of Orascom over alleged unpaid taxes, amongst other things), so moving into Algeria could be a risky strategy for the French operator.
BMI is hopeful that the privatisation of state-owned incumbent Tunisie Télécom will get underway later this year, and there is still a chance that its Algerian peer, Algérie Télécom, will follow suit at some point. Along with the auctioning of 3G/4G services in Algeria, these represent the key investment opportunities in the region now that the modernisation of the Libyan telecommunications network and the listing of Libya's two existing mobile network operators seem unlikely to occur until long after the battle for control of the country is decided one way or the other.
The disturbed political situation has begin to filter through into BMI's Business Environment Ratings this quarter, with all four North African countries receiving modified scores in multiple categories. Libya, Tunisia and Algeria are all marked down to greater or lesser degrees, while Morocco's robust performance leads to a small uptick in its fortunes. This does nothing to alter their overall positions relative to one another and with other countries in the Middle East.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
North Africa Mobile SWOT
North Africa Fixed-Line And Broadband SWOT
Business Environment
Middle East And North Africa
North Africa
Table: Regional Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: North Africa Telecoms Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
Fixed Line
Table: North Africa – Fixed-Line Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
Internet and Broadband
Table: North Africa – Internet And Broadband Sectors – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Algeria
Table: Algeria Mobile Market, Q410
Table: Algeria – Mobile Blended ARPUs, 2009-2010 (user/month)
Libya
Table: Libya Mobile Market, Q409
Morocco
Table: Morocco Mobile Market, Q410
Tunisia
Table: Tunisia – Mobile Market, Q410
3G
Algeria
Morocco
Tunisia
Libya
Mobile Operator Data
Algeria
Table: Mobilis
Table: Nedjma
Table: Djezzy
Morocco
Table: Maroc Telecom
Table: Meditel
Tunisia
Table: Tunisie Telecom
Table: Tunisiana
Fixed Line
Algeria
Table: Growth Of Fixed Lines By Technology, 2000-2008 (‘000)
Libya
Morocco
Table: Moroccan Fixed-Line Market, 2009-2010
Tunisia
Internet
Algeria
Libya
Morocco
Tunisia
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Table: North African Regulatory Environment
Algeria
Libya
Morocco
Tunisia
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players – North Africa Telecoms Sector
Company Monitor
Alcatel-Lucent: Slowly Raising Profile In Africa & Middle East
Table: : Alcatel-Lucent Q310 Results (EURmn)
Table: Alcatel-Lucent - Key Contracts, 2009-2010
Company Profiles
Algérie Télécom
Maroc Télécom
Tunisie Télécom
Orascom Telecom
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed-Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Macroeconomic Data Tables
Table: Algeria – Economic Activity, 2006-2014
Table: Morocco – Economic Activity, 2006-2014
Table: Tunisia – Economic Activity, 2006-2014
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- Algérie Télécom
- Maroc Télécom
- Tunisie Télécom
- Orascom Telecom
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