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Sweden Telecommunications Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 107
Business Monitor International's Sweden Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Sweden's telecommunications industry.
The Q211 BMI report on Sweden's telecommunications market contains the latest data published by the country's incumbent operator, TeliaSonera, Swedish based international operator Tele2, Norwegian incumbent operator Telenor and international conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa's subsidiary Hi3G, covering Q410. We also include the latest mobile content data and information on the fixed-line and broadband markets published by the regulator, for the period ended June 2010. BMI’s forecasts were revised in Q111, and remain unchanged for all segments except 3G, which has been revised upwards as a result of the increased rate of uptake of smartphones in H210.
Although mobile penetration rose above 134% in December 2010, the rate of mobile subscription growth increased for FY10 compared to FY09. There were 643,000 net additions in 2010, compared to 609,000 in 2009. BMI believes that this is the result of growing demand for 3G services. According to the Swedish Post and Telecom Agency (PTS), there were 6.254mn 3G subscriptions at the end of June 2010, up 50% yo- y from 4.179mn at the end of June 2009. This revealed that 3G accounted for around 51% of total mobile subscriptions in June 2010, up from 37% at the end of June 2009.
BMI estimates that mobile 57.4% of mobile subscribers were 3G subscribers at the end of 2010, and this report expects this rate to increase to 72.6% by the end of 2011. Smartphone prevalence, cheap data packages and the introduction of LTE are all driving the penetration of 3G services in Sweden. In November 2010 Net4Mobility, a joint venture (JV) owned by mobile operators Tele2 and Telenor, made good their plans to roll out a commercial LTE network before the end of the year. The new network, which went live in Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmo and Karlkrona, is expected to cover 99% of the population by the end of 2012. By that time, BMI estimates that almost 90% of the total mobile market will be on 3G services.
There has been no new release of data by the Swedish telecoms regulator since June 2010, when it reported there were 5.014mn fixed lines in Sweden. However, data from individual operators shows that the annual rate of decline for FY10 has remained approximately the same as the 3.4% decline in 2009. BMI estimates there were 4.997mn lines at the end of 2010.
In terms of the fixed-line market, the decline in demand is representative of continued demand for alternative services that are both cheaper and more convenient to access, such as mobile and VoIP. Notably, while overall demand for fixed lines fell, much of this related to PSTN and ISDN lines, while demand for IP-based telephony increased. TeliaSonera's VoIP subscriptions increased 75.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 277,000 in Q410, with 69,000 subscriptions added in H210.To a degree this would suggest that the decline actually represents a shift in the type of connection, rather than a permanent loss of subscribers.
BMI estimates there were a total of 4.881mn broadband internet subscribers at the end of 2010, a y-o-y increase of 12.6%. This report believes this growth was led by fibre, DOCSIS3.0 cable and mobile broadband connections. While xDSL accounted for the bulk of connections, at 1.633mn, this represented a decline of 4% y-o-y and it is in danger of being overtaken by mobile broadband, which had a total of 1.532mn subscribers, or 29% share of broadband connections in H110. This report expects mobile broadband's share to increase as consumer preferences for higher speeds increase. In H110 mobile broadband accounted for over 85% of net additions of 10Mbps+ connections with fibre accounting for 9% and cable TV 5%.
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