Croatia Tourism Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 57
Business Monitor International's Croatia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
Latest figures for January-October 2010 show that the number of foreign tourist arrivals was up nearly 5% year-on-year (y-o-y), representing a rebound on a poor performance in 2009. Domestic tourist numbers fell by almost 6% y-o-y though, continuing the downward trend recorded in the previous year (although at a less severe rate). In total, foreign and domestic tourism numbers increased by 3.3% y-o-y. Four key source markets, Germany, Slovenia, Austria and the Czech Republic, all recorded favourable growth in arrivals of between 4% and 6% y-o-y during the 10-month period. Despite poor growth in foreign arrivals in August 2010 of just 1% y-o-y, arrivals growth picked up in September and October to 5.6% and 8.5% y-o-y respectively.
Hospitality
According to data for the first 10 months of 2010, there was a modest recovery in the hospitality sector, with total tourist nights up by 2.6% y-o-y. The number of foreign tourist nights (accounting for some 91% of the total) rose by a reasonable 3.5% y-o-y, while domestic tourist nights declined by nearly 6% y-o-y. Concerning Croatia’s main source market, Germany, tourist nights rose by 2.6% y-o-y, while three other important markets, Slovenia, Austria and the Czech Republic, recorded even stronger growth of around 7%, 4% and 5% y-o-y respectively. Tourist nights attributed to arrivals from Italy, however, fell nearly 4% y-o-y.
Industry Forecast Scenario
BMI has improved slightly the outlook for the tourism sector in 2011, with growth in arrivals forecast at an annual 3%. Concerning economic conditions in major source markets, BMI are forecasting steady growth in the eurozone going into 2011, at 1.6%. Economic growth in the two key source markets Germany and Italy though is expected to diverge in the short term. After the kuna weakened against the euro and US dollar in 2010, further slight depreciation of the HRK/EUR exchange rate is forecast for the end of 2011, compared with the end of 2010 – helping the tourism sector.
Zagreb Airport
Despite poor traffic figures in the first four months of the year, growth in passenger numbers at Zagreb Airport – the main international airport in Croatia – was largely unchanged y-o-y during the first 11 months of 2010, with positive growth y-o-y recorded in each month between May and November.
Croatia Airlines
In summer 2011, the national flag carrier Croatia Airlines will offer direct connections between Dubrovnik/Venice and Dubrovnik/Athens.
easyJet
From November 2010, low-cost carrier easyJet added scheduled flights from the capital Zagreb to Paris Charles de Gaulle, and will introduce flights connecting Zagreb to London Gatwick from mid-February 2011.
Infrastructure
A new international ferry port is expected be completed by the end of 2012 in the area of Gaženica in Zadar. After Split, Gaženica will be the biggest port on the eastern coast of the Adriatic, with a direct connection to the Zadar-Zagreb motorway. The new port will also have a hotel and business-shopping centre.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Croatia Tourism SWOT
Croatia Political SWOT
Croatia Economic SWOT
Croatia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015
Expenditure
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015
Inbound Tourism
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2007-2015
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015
Market Overview – Travel
Commercial Airlines
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview – Hospitality
Table: Key Players In The Croatian Hotel Industry, 2009
Accommodation Developments
Gaming
Infrastructure
Business Environment Outlook
Croatia’s Business Environment
Table: Croatia’s Annual FDI Inflows, 2000-2006
Table: Central And Eastern Europe’s FDI Inflows, 2005-2006
BMI’s Security Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Security Overview
Global Assumptions, Q211
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Developed States
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Consensus Forecasts
Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012
Company Profiles
Adris Group
Croatia Airlines
Cubus Lux
Hilton Worldwide
Liburnia Riviera Hoteli
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources
- Adris Group
- Croatia Airlines
- Cubus Lux
- Hilton Worldwide
- Liburnia Riviera Hoteli
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