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Russia Tourism Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 64
Business Monitor International's Russia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
Following a sharp fall in foreign visitors to Russia in 2009 of 10% year-on-year (y-o-y), the most recent preliminary data for the period January-September 2010 show moderate recovery in visitor numbers of 2% y-o-y (after a marginal fall y-o-y in Q110). Key source markets outside the former Soviet Union, such as Finland, Poland, the US and the UK, all recorded growth in arrivals y-o-y.
Moscow Domodedovo Airport Terrorist Attack
In January 2011, there was an apparent suicide bomb attack at Moscow Domodedovo Airport, killing 35 people and injuring 110. While it is too early to say if the bombing represents the start of a new phase in terrorist activity in Russia, BMI note that the targeting of the international arrivals hall is significant. Indeed, given recent efforts by the Kremlin to boost Russia’s attractiveness to non-Russian investors, there is a chance that terrorist groups will increasingly attack international targets.
Aircraft Safety
In December 2010, a Tupolev TU-154 operated by Dagestan Airlines, carrying 163 passengers and nine crew, crash landed at Moscow Domodedovo Airport. The accident, which killed two people and injured around 80, occurred 30 minutes after takeoff from Vnukovo International Airport (southwest of Moscow) when all three engines failed. In January 2011, a Tupolev TU-154 belonging to the regional Kogalymavia airline carrying 124 people burst into flames after a blaze in one of the engines as the aircraft was taxiing for takeoff at Surgut Airport (western Siberia) en route to Moscow. Three people were killed and at least 43 were injured. These recent accidents once again raise concern about the safety of Russian-built aircraft.
Forecast Scenario
This quarter, BMI expect only a modest increase in foreign visitor arrivals to Russia in 2011 (about 1% y-oy). Regarding the eurozone, an important source market, the revised economic growth forecasts are 1.6% and 1.9% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, following growth estimated at 1.8% in 2010. Recent gains by the Russian rouble against the euro-dollar basket that it is managed against are expected to continue over the medium term, constraining stronger growth in foreign tourism over the next few years.
Russian Airlines
A number of major Russian airlines reported significant growth in passenger traffic in 2010. The Russian national carrier Aeroflot recorded a near 29% y-o-y increase in passenger numbers, to about 11.3mn, with a passenger load factor of some 77% (a favourable annual increase). Financial results for 9M10 show that Aeroflot achieved a net profit of US$281mn, an increase of 65% y-o-y. Transaero achieved growth in total passenger numbers of some 32% y-o-y, to over 6.6mn (well ahead of target). Preliminary figures also show total revenue was up an annual 60% compared with 2009. Finally, UTair transported over 4.4mn passengers, a robust increase of some 25% y-o-y.
FIFA World Cup
At the end of 2010, Russia successfully bid to host the football World Cup in 2018. Clearly, the tournament will offer considerable opportunities to boost tourism in the same year and, possibly, afterwards. With this in mind, the authorities pledged to waive visa restrictions for visitors to the competition. Russia’s World Cup win also presents the government with a massive building programme, which should leave a significant legacy from the competition. The first announcements of major infrastructure projects related to the tournament have already been made.
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