Ultra-broadband via Satellite in Europe and North Africa - What Role Can Satellite Play in the New Superfast Access Market? 4th Edition

This report explores the latest developments in national broadband plans – USA, Asia, Europe - and analyses the positioning of satellite solutions compared to alternative technologies. It also provides an assessment of the opportunities attached to fixed access deployments for residential users - Europe & North Africa - and delivers strategic and figure-backed responses to the question of satellite’s role in the emerging race to deploy UFB.

Key questions
- What are the plans that have been adopted around the globe to boost UFB coverage?
- Do these plans consider satellite a possible solution?
- What are the latest developments from satellite manufacturers?
- Will they enable satellite to stay in the game?
- Satellite vs. LTE: who’s going to win?
- How are ISPs marketing their bundles? Can satellite providers do the same?
- Are the European and North African markets big enough to justify satellite operators’ investments?
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The PDF version of this report is delivered with a database in Excel.

1. Executive Summary
1.1. Growing number of national UFB plans
1.2. Satellite needs to gain a foothold in the UFB market soon
1.3. Bundling strategies need to be stepped up
1.4. Satellite broadband market expected to grow by 34% annually between now and 2015
2. Methodology
3. Ultra-fast broadband now a key concern around the globe
3.1. In the United States
3.1.1. America’s "National Broadband Plan" and its targets
3.2. In Asia
3.2.1. Australia’s "National Broadband Network" and its targets
3.2.2. New Zealand’s Ultra-Fast Broadband plan and its targets
3.3. In Europe
3.3.1. Europe’s Digital Agenda 2020 and its objectives
3.3.2. Finland’s Making broadband available to everyone plan
3.3.3. Sweden’s "Broadband Strategy" plan
3.3.4. The German federal government’s broadband strategy
3.3.5. France’s Ultra-fast broadband Plan
3.4. Summary
4. Current status of broadband and ultra-fast broadband via satellite
4.1. Increasing bandwidth for two-way satellite access
4.1.1. How it works
4.1.2. Technical specificities tied to use of the Ka band
4.1.3. Economic advantages of using the Ka band
4.1.4. Increasingly competitive commercial offers
4.1.5. Terminal subsidies key to success
4.2. Innovation coming from the United States but also from Europe
4.2.1. In North America
4.2.2. In Europe
4.3. Industry preparing for ultra-fast broadband via satellite
4.3.1. Terabit Satellite
4.3.2. MegaSat
5. Competition from terrestrial ultra-fast broadband technologies
5.1. Wireline technologies still dominate
5.1.1. Massive dominance of wireline systems, mainly xDSL
5.1.2. Market development
5.1.3. Efforts to increase bandwidth on existing terrestrial networks making good progress
5.1.4. Growing need for ubiquity boosting use of broadband wireless
5.1.5. Market development
5.2. Outlook for new generation ultra high-speed technologies
5.2.1. Fibre to the home
5.2.2. Regulatory decisions being made country by country
5.2.3. Gradual introduction of pan-European regulation
5.2.4. Market development
5.2.5. The future of mobile solutions and 4G
6. Telcos and satellite companies taking different approaches to marketing their broadband solutions
6.1. Marketing wireline services
6.1.1. Increasingly clear bundled solutions
6.1.2. Shift in the way Internet access and telephony are monetized in bundles?
6.1.3. Underlying trend towards the quadruple play
6.2. Marketing mobile services
6.3. Marketing satellite services
7. Switch to UFB will usher in new services
7.1. From current uses…
7.2. … to future needs
8. What’s the best long-term positioning for satellite?
8.1. Technological competitiveness
8.2. Public authorities play a decisive role in the choice of solution
8.2.1. Increasing bandwidth, satellite, LTE: who’s going to win?
8.2.2. FTTH coverage limits could revive interest in satellite solutions
8.3. Commercial competitiveness
8.3.1. Are satellite solutions marketed in a competitive way?
8.3.2. Exploiting the complementary nature of satellite TV and broadband offers
8.3.3. What developments around the satellite box?
8.4. Positioning options
8.4.1. Solution for reducing the digital divide: positioning that began back in 2008
8.4.2. Partnership with a satellite pay-TV provider: relevant but costly to achieve
8.4.3. Internet “pure player”, targeting DSL customers stuck with a slow service?
9. Market segmentation criteria
9.1. Socio-economic criteria
9.1.1. PC penetration rate
9.1.2. GDP per capita
9.1.3. Rural/urban population density
9.2. Criteria affecting terrestrial broadband and ultra-broadband rollouts
9.2.1. DSL network coverage
9.2.2. FTTx network coverage
9.2.3. 3G network coverage
9.2.4. Broadband penetration
9.2.5. Internet connection speeds
9.2.6. Internet access prices
9.3. Criteria affecting the development of the satellite TV market
9.3.1. Satellite dish equipment levels
9.3.2. Satellite pay-TV penetration levels
9.4. Main challenges and uncertainties
9.4.1. Tied to the development of wireline and wireless networks
9.4.2. Tied to satellite’s commercial positioning, especially with respect to bundles
9.4.3. Tied to public authority involvement
9.5. Forecasts for satellite subscribers and market revenue, 2011-2015
9.6. Glossary

Boxes
Box 1 : Virgin Media’ online tools for helping customers design their bundles
Box 2 : Change in ISP Free’s marketing strategy
Box 3 : Features of the Orange quadruple play

Tables
Table 1: Positioning with respect to the main services marketed by satellite ISPs in France
Table 2: A selection of national superfast broadband schemes from around the world
Table 3: Comparison of a selection of offers available in France: 2004 vs 2011
Table 4: Residential Internet access services marketed by WildBlue
Table 5: Residential and professional Internet access services marketed by Hughes, in February 2011
Table 6: Hylas One satellite performance
Table 7: Avanti services distributed by Ireland’s Micromagic
Table 8: Future access speeds to be marketed by Sat2Way on Ka-Sat
Table 9: Range of speeds offered by Nordnet
Table 10: Properties of 3G technologies
Table 11: Main properties of EPON and GPON configurations
Table 12: The different FTTH/B network configurations, based on Ethernet technology
Table 13: Features of FTTH technologies
Table 14: TeliaSonera services and prices in Denmark and Finland
Table 15: Properties of 4G technologies
Table 16: Timeline for freeing up the 2500-2690 MHz band in France
Table 17: Speeds achieved with LTE by a selection of European carriers (actual launches and trials)
Table 18: Features of the Freebox Revolution offer
Table 19: Feature of the Freebox offer
Table 20: The different vendors’ change in positioning over time
Table 21: TeliaSonera LTE offer in Scandinavia
Table 22: TeliaSonera offer in Estonia
Table 23: Vodafone Germany’s LTE offer
Table 24: Eutelsat and SES ASTRA distribution agreements for selling Internet access via satellite
Table 25: Positioning with respect to the main services marketed by satellite ISPs in France
Table 26: The main French satellite ISPs’ positioning with respect to the supply of equipment
Table 27: Satellite ISPs’ positioning with respect to pricing in France (per month)
Table 28 : Digital home drivers
Table 29: Estimated number of households not connected to a fixed broadband network at the end of 2009
Table 30: The TNTSat offer
Table 31: Main features of the Freebox Revolution offer
Table 32: Main features of pay-TV providers’ set-top boxes
Table 33: List of the main satellite pay-TV services in Europe in 2010

Figures
Figure 1: Changing consumption habits that demand increased bandwidth
Figure 2: Estimated value of the two-way broadband satellite market, 2010-2015
Figure 3: Current status of broadband networks in the United States
Figure 4 How two-way Internet access via satellite works
Figure 5: Hughes’s global footprint
Figure 6: Example of beam coverage with frequency reuse
Figure 7: Estimated cost of bandwidth for Ka-band systems (launched satellite)
Figure 8: Change in the price of a broadband satellite reception terminal
Figure 9: Satellite dish subsidies awarded in France – location
Figure 10: Satellite dish subsidies awarded in France – amounts
Figure 11: Growth of the WildBlue subscriber base
Figure 12: Breakdown of WildBlue subscribers by population density
Figure 13: Impact of WildBlue on Ka-band terminal shipments in the United States
Figure 14 : Growth of HughesNet subscribers
Figure 15 : Growth of ARPU for the HughesNet service
Figure 16: Growth of the target market for satellite (Hughes + ViaSat) in the United States
Figure 17: Hughes satellite network, owned and leased
Figure 18: The new service architecture with the SpaceWay 3 satellite
Figure 19: The Spaceway transmission system
Figure 20: Viasat-1 coverage
Figure 21: ViaSat-1 development roadmap
Figure 22: Estimate of the ViaSat-1’s capacity, in Gbps, compared to other Ka, Ku and C-band satellites in North America
Figure 23: Improvements brought by Viasat-1
Figure 24: Gains provided to Barret Xplore by new generation satellites
Figure 25: Growth of the installed base of Ka-band terminals in Canada
Figure 26: Avanti fleet coverage
Figure 27: Footprint of the service provided by Avanti
Figure 28: Tooway Ka and Ku-band coverage and access rates
Figure 29: Tooway offers distributed by Sat2Way in France, as of January 2011
Figure 30: Planned coverage area for Eutelsat’s Ka-Sat
Figure 31: Ka-Sat network architecture
Figure 32: The Sat3Play system architecture
Figure 33: Triple play via Astra2Connect
Figure 34: SES Global’s market view
Figure 35: Combined high-speed access/TV reception via satellite
Figure 36: "Astra2connect to the street cabinet" Infrastructure
Figure 37: Terabit satellite being developed by ESA
Figure 38: Satellites’ evolution towards ultra-fast broadband and MegaSat
Figure 39: Satellite performances working to match terrestrial
Figure 40: DSL variants, according to downstream bitrate
Figure 41: Theoretical performance of ADSL2+, VDSL and VDSL2
Figure 42: European broadband market structure by access technology, Q4 2010
Figure 43: North African broadband market structure by access technology, Q4 2010
Figure 44: Subscriber distance from the ADSL connection point
Figure 45: The “NRA-ZO” solution
Figure 46: Difference in the price per Gb of traffic in the UK, by type of device
Figure 47: Mobile Internet use in Europe (EU-5), the United States and Japan, Sept-Dec 2010
Figure 48: Mobile broadband use in the UK, in 2010
Figure 49: Mobile broadband use in the UK, in 2010
Figure 50: 21% of the people theoretically covered by 3G are actually not
Figure 51: The different possible FTTH/B network configurations
Figure 52: The different components of an FTTH/B architecture
Figure 53: Diagram of a ring configuration
Figure 54: European countries with more than FTTH/B 200,000 subscribers (December 2010)
Figure 55: European countries with over 1 million households passed for FTTH/B (December 2010)
Figure 56: FTTx network coverage in 2010
Figure 57: FTTx rollouts spurred by alternative carriers and cable companies
Figure 58: 3GLTE deployment around the world (starting in 2010-2011)
Figure 59: Will LTE help boost carriers’ revenue?
Figure 60: Spectrum assigned to LTE
Figure 61: 26 GHz band frequency auctions
Figure 62: The future of mobile vs fixed technologies
Figure 63: Maturity of the different uses made of the Web
Figure 64: Bandwidth required by type application
Figure 65 : Estimated bandwidth requirements by type of household
Figure 66: Cisco’s "Umi" residential video calling solution
Figure 67: Diagram of new applications enabled by UFB
Figure 68: The digital home of tomorrow will incorporate high-end automation and health monitoring solutions
Figure 69: Growth of total DSL coverage in Europe & North Africa, 2008-2010
Figure 70: Cost of an FTTH connection, according to Alcatel-Lucent
Figure 71: Cost of an FTTH connection, according to British regulator, Ofcom
Figure 72 : The main optional paid services marketed with access
Figure 73: Equipment needed to receive the TNTSat service
Figure 74: The V-Box from satellite operator Vivéole
Figure 75: PC penetration in 2009
Figure 76: GDP per capita in 2010
Figure 77: Population density in Europe
Figure 78: Population density in North Africa
Figure 79: Total DSL network coverage at the end of 2009
Figure 80: DSL coverage of urban and suburban areas at the end of 2009
Figure 81: Growth of coverage levels in urban and suburban areas in Europe, 2007-2009
Figure 82: DSL coverage of rural areas at the end of 2009
Figure 83: Growth of DSL coverage in rural areas in Europe, 2007-2009
Figure 84: Growth of FTTH/B subscribers in Europe, 2007-2010
Figure 85: FTTx network coverage at the end of 2009
Figure 86: Growth of 3G+ network coverage in rural areas in Europe & North Africa, 2008-2009
Figure 87: Total 3G+ network coverage at the end of 2009
Figure 88: 3G+ coverage in rural areas at the end of 2009
Figure 89: Broadband penetration at the end of 2010
Figure 90: End-user DSL bitrates in Europe and North Africa at the end of 2009
Figure 91: Cable data rates in rural areas in Europe and North Africa at the end of 2009
Figure 92: Average price of a broadband offer (DSL & cable) at the end of June 2010 – 4 Mbps downstream
Figure 93: Average price of a broadband offer (DSL & cable) at the end of June 2010 – 10 Mbps downlink
Figure 94: Price of a triple play bundle by access technology
Figure 95: Average monthly price of a 35 Mbps connection at the end of 2009
Figure 96: Percentage of households equipped with a satellite reception antenna at the end of 2010
Figure 97: DTH subscribers at the end of 2010
Figure 98: Forecast growth of residential subscribers to a two-way satellite broadband solution, 2011-2015
Figure 99: Estimated value of the two-way broadband satellite market, 2011-2015

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