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Global Biopharma Outlook 2011: Major US and EU
MP Advisors, Feb 2011, Pages: 90
The year 2011 and 2012 will be a bonanza for generic companies, as large innovator companies will lose patent exclusivity on prescription drugs worth over $70b in sales. It is imperative to understand how global companies are adapting to this difficult situation, as the challenge is mammoth. There are only two avenues of growth for global pharma companies - Innovation and Emerging markets.
As far as emerging markets are concerned, not all global companies have been able to execute as well as others. There are only a select few companies, that have been able to adapt their product/marketing/pricing strategies to the needs of emerging market and is reflected by their existing market penetration and on-going growth. China, which so far has been the darling for global pharma companies, is facing policy pressures and we expect lacklustre growth at least for the next 12 months. This report expects more price cuts from National drug Reimbursement list (NDRL) drugs in China and this report also views the on-going hospital reform with caution. India is growing well and global pharma companies are pursuing different strategies to extract their fair share of the growing market.
On the Innovation front, over the last two years, this research has seen approval of a host of new molecular entities (NME) with blockbuster potential (Gilenya, Victoza, Linagliptin, Pradaxa, denosumab, telaprevir, boceprevir, Brilinta, Bydureon). A majority of these drugs are first in class and have game changing potential in their respective therapy areas. The implication of approval of these drugs is wide ranging.
There are late stage compounds in the pipeline of global pharma companies, which have the potential to take away the pain of patent expiries for these companies. We are excited about the potential of few of them like Xarelto (Atrial Fibrillation), RG7204 (Metastatic Melanoma), T-DM1 (Breast Cancer), QVA149 (COPD), Anacetrapib (Dyslipidemia), Alovectin (Metastatic Melanoma), MAGE-A3 (Metastatic Melanoma), TC-5214 (Depression), CP690550 (Rheumatoid Arthritis), Canagliflozin (Diabetes), Lemtrada (Multiple Sclerosis), Aleglitazaar (Diabetes) and Solanezumab (Alzheimer Disease). The cumulative sales potential of these drugs is expected to be $40b and should help the global pharma companies take care of their patent expiry woes. In 2011 alone we expect 15 new drug approvals for the large cap innovator companies.
This report gives a thorough analysis of the large cap companies - Novartis, Pfizer, Merck, AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, Bristol Myers Squibb, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Glaxo Smithkline and Roche in terms of:
(1) The key R&D success and news flow in various therapy areas expected over the next 3 years.
(2) Impact of healthcare reforms and patent expires in the major therapeutic classes and companies.
(3) The companies that are best poised to grow despite the challenges facing the sector.
(4) The companies that are best poised to grab emerging market opportunity.
Each company analysis includes a detailed drug-by-drug pipeline analysis with explanations of how a drug will perform in its therapy area and why. And there is an in-depth look at the current portfolio with generic exposure analysis and sales projections to 2015.
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