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Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 62
The Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's oil and gas industry.
The latest Hong Kong Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 1.5% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while making no contribution to supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.4mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. Hong Kong’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 0.69%, and it has no share of production. By 2015 its share of gas consumption is forecast to be around 0.64%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.
Hong Kong’s real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 6.8% in 2010, with average annual growth of 4.3% forecast for 2010-2015. There is no upstream or refining segment, but international oil companies (IOCs) and Chinese companies are investing in import and distribution facilities. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 2-3% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 451,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand is set to reach 4.2bcm by 2015, with all of the fuel imported.
Between 2010 and 2020, BMI is forecasting an increase in Hong Kong oil consumption of 43.73%, with demand reaching 539,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Oil consumption growth slows to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period. Gas demand growth of 42.49% provides an import requirement rising to 5.0bcm by 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found at the end of this report.
Hong Kong shares 13th place with South Korea in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table and is ranked equal 12th in the updated upstream Business Environment ratings, alongside Singapore. The poor showing reflects the absence of domestic hydrocarbons. The risk environment is much more attractive than for many Asian peers, but there are no opportunities for IOCs in the upstream segment. Hong Kong is ranked 12th, behind the Philippines, in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, above only Malaysia, Taiwan and Papua New Guinea (PNG), reflecting its status as a very small energy market with few investment opportunities available. It beats its nearest rivals because of its low risk profile.
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