Pakistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011

Business Monitor International's Pakistan Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Pakistan's oil and gas industry.

The latest Pakistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.5% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.7% of supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.3mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.

The region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in 2010 and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. Pakistan's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 7.6%, while its share of production is put at 9.6%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 6.9%, with the country accounting for 7.5% of supply.

Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.

The oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, giving Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.

BMI estimates that Pakistan's real GDP grew by 4.4% in 2010, with an average annual increase of 3.2% forecast for 2010-2015. Several state-controlled oil and gas companies are in the throes of privatisation, and already work with international oil companies (IOCs) in the upstream segment. We foresee oil and gas liquids production of 57,500b/d by 2015, with the country able to pump around 67,000b/d in 2010/11.
Consumption beyond 2010 is forecast to increase by around 2% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 444,870b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 387,390b/d by 2015. Gas demand is set to rise from an estimated 39bcm in 2010 to almost 45bcm by 2015, requiring imports of 2.8bcm.

Between 2010 and 2020, BMI forecasts a decrease in Pakistani oil production of 37%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 40,680b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 22%, with growth slowing to 1.5-2% per annum during the period and the country using 488,080b/d by 2020.

Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 39bcm in 2010 to a possible 54.4bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 3-5%, this will require imports rising to 6.4bcm by the end of the forecast period. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.
Pakistan is now ranked equal eighth with Japan and Indonesia in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table. It ranks seventh, above Indonesia and China, in the updated upstream ratings, reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-than-average growth outlook and falling state involvement. The country now sits three points behind the Philippines and is unlikely to make further progress over the medium term. Pakistan ranks equal ninth with Vietnam in BMI's downstream ratings, reflecting its refinery capacity expansion plans, average oil and gas demand growth outlook and low level of retail site intensity. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Pakistan Political SWOT
Pakistan Economic SWOT
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT
Pakistan Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Asia Pacific Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Pakistan Upstream Rating – Overview
Pakistan Upstream Rating – Rewards
Pakistan Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Pakistan Downstream Rating – Overview
Pakistan Downstream Rating – Rewards
Pakistan Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
Business Environment
Legal Framework
Property Rights
Intellectual Property Rights
Corruption
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Foreign Trade Regime
Tax Regime
Security Risk

Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Pakistan Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Pakistan Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Energy Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Pakistan
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Pakistan – Economic Activity

Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Pakistan Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players

Company Monitor
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDCL)
Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL)
Pakistan State Oil (PSO)
Pakistan Oilfields Ltd
Shell Pakistan
BP – Summary
Petroleum Exploration Ltd (PEL) – Summary
Mari Gas Company – Summary
Chevron – Summary
Eni – Summary
Premier Oil – Summary
National Refinery Ltd – Summary
Pakistan Refinery Ltd – Summary
OMV – Summary
MOL – Summary

Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)

Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross Checks
Sources

- Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDCL)
- Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL)
- Pakistan State Oil (PSO)
- Pakistan Oilfields Ltd
- Shell Pakistan
- BP
- Petroleum Exploration Ltd (PEL)
- Mari Gas Company
- Chevron
- Eni
- Premier Oil
- National Refinery Ltd
- Pakistan Refinery Ltd
- OMV
- MOL