Singapore Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 73
Business Monitor International's Singapore Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Singapore's oil and gas industry.
The latest Singapore Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.71% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while not contributing to supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.4mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. Singapore’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 was 1.95%, and its share is expected to rise to 2.10% by 2015. There is no gas production in Singapore.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.5%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Singapore’s real GDP growth in 2010 stood at 14.5%, with the forecast average annual increase put at 6.2% in 2010-2015. There is no domestic oil or gas production but there is an active downstream segment, with extensive international oil company (IOC) involvement in refining and petrochemicals. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 1.09mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand and imports are forecast to increase from an estimated 10.0bcm in 2010 to 13.7bcm by 2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Singapore’s domestic oil consumption from 946,000b/d to 1.27mn b/d, with the island’s refining capacity rising from 1.39mn b/d to 1.55mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from around 10.0bcm in 2010 to a possible 19.7bcm by 2020, driven by power generation requirements. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are expected to commence in 2013. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.
Singapore holds 11th place, above Thailand, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table. The country ranks equal 12th (alongside Hong Kong) in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the limited involvement of the government in upstream oil activities and an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which partly offset the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country sits ahead of South Korea and well clear of bottom-placed Taiwan in the upstream league table. Singapore ranks fourth, behind Japan, in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its relatively high level of oil consumption, increasing gas demand, established modern refining capability, fuels export capability and a relatively low level of retail site intensity. It is just one point behind Japan, but two clear of South Korea, and seems likely to retain its current position.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Singapore Political SWOT
Singapore Economic SWOT
Singapore Business Environment SWOT
Singapore Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Asia Pacific Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Singapore Upstream Rating – Overview
Singapore Upstream Rating – Rewards
Singapore Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Singapore Downstream Rating – Overview
Singapore Downstream Rating – Rewards
Singapore Downstream Rating – Risks
Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Singapore Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Singapore Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Energy Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Singapore
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Singapore – Economic Activity, 2006-2015
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Singapore Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Singapore Petroleum Company
Chevron
ExxonMobil Singapore
Royal Dutch Shell
BG Group – Summary
Ramba Energy – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Oil And Gas Industry
Cross Checks
Sources
- Singapore Petroleum Company
- Chevron
- ExxonMobil Singapore
- Royal Dutch Shell
- BG Group
- Ramba Energy
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