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Iron Ore Industry, Q3 2011
Credit Analysis & Research Limited, July 2011, Pages: 121
Buoyant iron ore appetite on the domestic ground but share of exports in China's import basket to drop further … Iron ore production in the world is concentrated with only handful of countries which are blessed with resources. India is endowed with the huge iron ore reserves of about 25.25 bn tonnes which are approximately 12.5% of the world's total iron ore reserves. India's iron ore production has increased from 123 mn tonnes in FY04 to about 213 mn tonnes in FY11 registering a CAGR of 8.1%.
Iron ore production in the country dominantly constitutes iron ore fines. More than 50% of the iron ore produced in the country is exported, mainly to China. Out of the total iron ore exports from the country, about 85% are in the form of fines. India's iron ore export has increased from 63 mn tonnes in FY 04 to 115 mn tonnes in FY 10 registering a CAGR of 10.6%. However, in FY11, iron ore exports from the country declined by almost 18% on yoy basis to 95 mn tonnes. This steep fall in iron ore exports was mainly because of exports ban imposed by the state of Karnataka and the extended unseasonal monsoon coupled with lower imports from China.
Globally, China is the dominant producer of iron ore. China's contribution in total global iron ore production has increased from 26.8% in CY 05 to 40.7% in CY10. However, with the widening gap between the soaring iron ore demand and domestic supply coupled with gradually decreasing iron content of domestically produced iron ore has forced China to rely on imports.
As a result, China has emerged as the largest importer of iron ore and a key driver of global iron ore trade. In CY10, China imported about 619 mn tonnes of iron ore and accounted for almost 59% of the global seaborne iron ore trade. India is the third largest supplier of iron ore to China after Brazil & Australia. However, India's share in China's total iron ore imports has fallen from 27% in CY05 to 14% in CY10. Eventhough, India has a substantial potential, iron ore exports from the country are expected to subside in next few years. CARE Research has estimated that total iron ore exports from the country will register a lower CAGR of 2.7% in the period CY 10-15. Proportion of Indian iron ore in China's iron ore import basket is expected to fall to 13% by the end of CY15.
Apart from the exports, majority of the iron ore produced in the country is consumed by the domestic steel industry. The domestic iron ore demand in the country is expected to remain intact given the sustained buoyant steel demand in the country. During the period of FY 04-11, crude steel production in the country grew at a CAGR of 8.7% while iron ore consumption grew at a CAGR of 10.1%. The authors have estimated that, during the period of FY11-15, total iron ore demand in the country is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.2%. Iron ore demand from crude steel manufacturers is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% during the same period while demand from foundry grade pig iron manufacturers will grow at a marginal CAGR of 2.3%.
Railway freight and export duty are the major cost components of the domestic iron ore exporters. These two cost components taken together accounted for almost 46% of the total cost in FY11. With the rise in rail freight and export duty, iron ore exporters will find it difficult to sustain the margins in FY 12. The authors have estimated that the share of railway freight and export duty taken together in the total cost will increase to 63% in FY12. With this, margins of the iron ore exporters are expected to fall substantially from 47% in FY11 to 21% in FY12.
India is endowed with the huge iron ore reserves of about 25.25 bn tonnes which are approximately 12.5% of the world's total iron ore reserves. Iron ore production in the country has increased from 123 mn tonnes in FY 04 to about 213 mn tonnes in FY 11 registering a CAGR of 8.1%. India's iron ore production dominantly constitutes of iron ore fines. More than 50% of the iron ore produced in the country is exported, mainly to China. Out of the total iron ore exports from the country, about 85% are in the form of fines.
China has been the key driver of global iron ore trade. In CY10, China imported about 619 mn tonnes of iron ore and accounted for almost 59% of the global seaborne iron ore trade. India is the third largest supplier of iron ore to China after Brazil & Australia.
Will China continue to drive the global iron ore trade? Will China's dependence on imported iron ore uphold? Is the iron ore export from India sustainable? Will the domestic iron ore demand continue its growth momentum? To what extent rise in rail freight and export duty will eat away margins of iron ore exporters? The authors have attempted to address such queries using most pragmatic approach.
This report on the Iron Ore industry contains comprehensive data and analysis of the sector apart from giving CARE's outlook on the sector. With its established network of primary and secondary sources, The authors have captured exhaustive data on the various parameters to analyse the industry.
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