- Published: June 2008
- Region: South Korea
Korean Mobile Market Dynamics and Forecast 2011-2015
- Published: July 2011
- Region: North Korea, South Korea
- 65 Pages
- ROA Holdings
Korean Mobile Market Dynamics and Forecast 2011-2015 report provides an analysis on the latest developments in the market, the fastest growing smartphone market in Asia, focusing on the market dynamics of the three Korean mobile carriers, SKT, KT and LG U +.
Market Forecast (2011-2015)
Based on the analysis by ROA Holdings, the number of mobile subscribers in South Korea will reach 52.57 million by the end of 2011. Replacement demand caused by the emergence of various new services is bound to be the major trend in South Korea, rather than the new demand. The average annual growth rate after 2011 is expected to steadily increase to 3.26% backed by the interest in multi-devices. In this situation, it is estimated that about 59.77 million people will subscribe to mobile services by 2015, which equals to 121.60% of the penetration rate.
The market share of the three mobile carriers in 2011 is forecast to be similar to that of 2010, SK Telecom leading with 50.54%, followed by Korea Telecom with 31.62% and LG U+ with 17.84%. The figures are forecast to go down slightly by 2015 due to the MVNOs entry into the prepaid market.
In terms of smartphone, the number of users will reach 19.57 million by late December, 2011 and with the launch of various models and improved networks, the percentage of smartphone users will increase steeply to 25.13%. ROA Holdings estimates that about 48 million people, 80.31% of the total subscribers will use smartphones in 2015, combined with the number of those who have two handsets and tablet PC.
As for CDMA 2000 1X/EV-DO, the user percentage is expected to annually decrease by 40.4% from 2011 as users will be migrating to WCDMA (HSPA) and new networks. As a result, only about two million people will subscribe to CDMA 2000 1X/EV-DO service in 2015. In the case of WCDMA, it will grow together with 4G (LTE, WiBro 4G) to supplement the constantly increasing data traffic. The total number of WCDMA subscribers will gradually decline after reaching its peak of 36.13 million in 2013.
In terms of LTE, a small number of early adopters who do not hesitate to pay extra will start using the technology. In 2013 when LTE-Advanced is planned to be commercialized, this service will have about 11 million users, which equals to 20% of market share.
Over the long run, WiFi and WiBro will be used together with LTE-Advanced technology to handle the rapidly growing data traffic due to the increase in tablet PC and smartphone users. The churn rate for the three mobile carriers in 2011 is forecast to fall from 2010. The figure is expected to stand at 2.9% this year, and it will further decline to 2.42% in 2015 thanks to the bundled pricing plans for smartphones.
Overall ARPU in 2011 is projected to be KRW 36,867 while data ARPU to be KRW 8,873. If there are no significant changes in the South Korean mobile market, the overall ARPU and data ARPU will stand at KRW 32,500 and KRW 11,143 respectively in 2015. Meanwhile, voice ARPU is predicted to continuously drop to KRW 21,356 by 2015 due to mVoIP and various discount rate plans.
The total revenues of the Korean mobile carriers will reach KRW 49.873 trillion in 2011. It is projected to increase 5.24% annually to KRW 61.176 trillion in 2015. Data revenues are forecast to be KRW 5.657 trillion this year, and reach KRW 8.550 trillion in 2015 with the annual growth rate of 10.88%. Data revenues account for 13.98% out of total revenues and 43.64% out of mobile revenues, and the portion of data revenues is expected to continue to increase in the future.
The Capex of Korea’s mobile market is projected to stand at KRW 7.3 trillion in 2011 and KRW 3.64 trillion in 2015. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
1.1 Market Review of 2010
1.2 Mobile Subscriber Forecast, 2011-2015
1.3 Smartphone Subscriber Forecast, 2011-2015
1.4 Prepaid Subscriber Forecast, 2011-2015
1.5 Subscriber Forecast by Network Technology, 2011-2015
1.6 Churn Rate Forecast, 2011-2015
1.7 Mobile Data and Voice Segmentation, 2011-2015
1.7.1 Data and Voice ARPU Forecast, 2011-2015
1.7.2 Data and Voice Revenue Forecast, 2011 - 2015
1.8 CAPEX Forecast, 2011-2015
2. Market Dynamics in South Korea
2.1.5 Strategic Alliances and Overseas Expansion
2.2.5 Strategic Alliances and Overseas Expansion
2.3 LG U+
2.3.5 Strategic Alliances and Overseas Expansion
3. Conclusion and Recommendations
List of Figures:
[Figure 1] Mobile Subscriber Growth 2011-2015
[Figure 2] Smartphone Subscribers in South Korea, 2011-2015
[Figure 3] Prepaid Subscribers in South Korea, 2011-2015
[Figure 4] Subscribers by Technology in South Korea, 2011-2015
[Figure 5] Churn Rate Forecast, 2011-2015
[Figure 6] Data & Voice ARPU Forecast, 2011-2015
[Figure 7] Data & Voice Revenues Forecast, 2011-2015
[Figure 8] Capex Forecast, 2011-2015
List of Tables:
[Table 1] Korean Mobile Market Figures in 2010
[Table 2] 2011 1st Half Market Dynamics - SKT
[Table 3] 2011 1st Half Market Dynamics - KT
[Table 4] 2011 1st Half Market Dynamics - LG U+
[Table 5] 2011 1st Half Market Dynamics - Network
[Table 6] 2011 1st Half Market Dynamics - Platform
[Table 7] 2011 1st Half Market Dynamics - Contents
[Table 8] 2011 1st Half Market Dynamics - Device
[Table 9] 2011 1st Half Market Dynamics - Alliance & Expansion
[Table 10] Scale Analysis