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Annual Global Power Generation Forecasts 2011 - Growth Opportunities in the Energy & Power Industry to 2030
Frost & Sullivan, June 2011, Pages: 93
Frost & Sullivan's Annual Global Power Generation Forecasts provide a detailed assessment of the future development of the power industry fuel mix over the next two decades. These reflect Frost & Sullivan's current thinking on the expected development of net capacity additions over the 2010-2030 period. A global overview looking at key global developments in fossil, nuclear and renewable generating sources is followed by a detailed assessment of fuel mix developments in ten different world regions. The Forecasts offer valuable insights not just for players in the energy sector but also for players from sectors such as engineering, chemicals and information technology.
Research Overview
This Frost & Sullivan research service titled Annual Global Power Generation Forecasts 2011 provides a detailed assessment of the future development of the power industry fuel mix in ten different regions, over the next two decades. The study provides an overview of the key global developments in fossil, nuclear and renewable generating sources. In this research, Frost & Sullivan's expert analysts thoroughly examine the following markets: coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind and other renewable energy sources.
Market Overview
Power Balance to Shift from Developed to Emerging Regions between 2010 and 2030, with India Expected to Show the Fastest Growth in Demand
There will be a higher demand for electricity between 2010 and 2030, especially in the developing regions of the world, due to a growing middle class and rapid urbanisation. As the spending power of the people in those regions rises, so will their uptake of electric appliances. Over the next two decades, the combined share of demand for electricity from the developed regions of European Union (EU), North America and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Asia Pacific (OECD APAC) will drop from 49.6 per cent to 37.5 per cent. However, power generation in the Middle East and Africa region will increase from 7.0 per cent in 2010 to 7.9 per cent in 2030. The bulk of demand growth is expected to come from India and China, with the combined share of only these two countries rising from 23.6 per cent in 2010 to 34.5 per cent in 2030. “China’s and India’s role and future impact is most prominent in the area of coal-fired power generation, where they accounted for 43.8 per cent of the world total in 2010, and this is forecast to rise to 57.0 per cent by 2030,” says the analyst of this research service. “Both countries are also very strong in hydro and wind power generation, with China expanding in hydro and India in wind power.” It is, however, in gas and nuclear where the growth in these nations will far outpace developments in most other regions. Their gas share will rise from 4.0 per cent to 14.3 per cent, while their nuclear share, despite current declines in planning approval, post-Fukushima, will increase massively from only 3.6 per cent in 2010 to 20.9 per cent in 2030. Power generation in China is expected to overtake that of North America by 2015.
Overall, Middle East and African growth rates are not likely to be as high as that of the leading Asian nations, but will have healthy CAGRs of 3.0 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively. The largest growth difference between the two periods (2010-2020 and 2020-2030) will be in China, as economic growth declines, population stabilises and energy use becomes more efficient. Only the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region will see even higher growth in next decade compared to the current one, reflecting continuing high population growth and the assumed end of isolation for Myanmar. Electricity demand will rise in India at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2 per cent, followed by the ASEAN at 4.6 per cent, and China at 4.0 per cent. Conversely, the developed regions will all record relatively weak growth of below 1 per cent per annum as population stagnates and more efficient energy use curtails demand.
Coal to Remain the Dominant Fuel Source Despite Renewable Energy Gaining Ground
Globally, renewable energy is expected to be widely adopted over the next two decades, as governments aim to curb fossil fuel emissions, partly in order to comply with international agreements on climate change and partly to support new industries in the field of the green economy. While hydropower is the largest renewable energy technology, it is also the most mature. This is particularly true in the developed world, with substantial growth potential being largely limited to China, India and the African countries. Non-hydro renewables (wind, solar, biomass, geothermal and marine) are expected to increase their global share from 3.6 per cent in 2010 to 7.7 per cent in 2020 and 12.6 per cent in 2030.
To meet the rising demand for electricity, the world’s installed power generation capacity is expected to have grown by 32 per cent in 2020 and by 58 per cent in 2030 from 2010 levels. All fuel sources, apart from oil, will expand, but coal will remain the dominant fuel source throughout the next two decades, still accounting for nearly 28 per cent of installed capacity and over 34 per cent of electricity generation in 2030. “China and India are both expected to see strong renewable and nuclear energy growth as they aim to diversify away from fossil-fired generation,” observes the analyst. “The highest non-fossil electricity generation growth, however, will be in the Middle East and Africa, where solar power developments, in particular, will receive increased attention.”
Market Sectors
Expert Frost & Sullivan analysts thoroughly examine the following market sectors in this research:
- Coal
- Oil
- Gas
- Nuclear
- Hydro
- Wind
- Other renewable energy sources
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