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Bulgaria Defence and Security Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, July 2011, Pages: 60
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's defence and security industry.
In mid-July 2011, it does not appear that the security issues – or the overall situation of Bulgaria's defence industry – have changed significantly. The country faces no obvious threat from inter-state aggression and very limited threat from non-state terrorists.
However, BMI's Security Rating with respect to criminal risk is one of the lowest in Europe. In part because of its geographic location, with easy access to Eastern Europe and the Middle East and mainly because of low levels of governance, Bulgaria is a hub for organised crime and illegal trafficking of drugs, arms and people. This will not be affected by the outcome of the presidential election that is due to take place in October, or by the (likely slow) growth of the economy.
Recent developments in the defence industry include the government's acknowledgement that it may look to sell its stake in Arsenal and renegotiate contracts (so that the Defence Ministry buys less or pays less) with (at least) two major Western European suppliers of materiel – Daimler Chrysler and Eurocopter. The first of these suggests that the government needs the money that it could raise from selling its holding in the country's largest arms producer more than it needs the control that comes with its 36% stake. The contract renegotiations highlight how the Defence Ministry remains short of cash.
On one hand, the defence White Paper which was approved by Bulgaria's parliament last year envisages a reduction in size in the country's defence establishment, together with a wholesale reorganisation and modernisation so that all three armed services are inter-operable with their counterparts in other NATO countries.
On the other, the defence industry consists mainly of small companies providing small arms and light weapons – and/or a surprising array of (relatively low technology) civilian products to (overwhelmingly) foreign customers. In theory, the Defence Ministry will involve the indigenous producers in the modernisation of Bulgaria's armed forces. In reality, it remains to be seen how they will be involved.
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