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Ghana Agribusiness Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, July 2011, Pages: 47
Business Monitor International's Ghana Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Ghana's agribusiness service.
Ghana looks set to reap a record cocoa crop for 2010/11 after a rise in the fixed price encouraged soaring plantings. The country's aim to produce 1mn tonnes of the commodity may still remain elusive, however. Côte d'Ivoire has resumed exports after the war in the country ended and BMI expects prices to fall through the year. At the same time, while Ghana is producing more corn than ever, this has not prevented shortages for poultry farmers that are holding the industry back. Better government support is needed to ensure such shortages do not derail growth.
Key Forecasts:
- In 2009/10, Ghana produced 1.62mn tonnes of corn. In 2010/11, BMI notes that rains have been abundant, promoting good crop development and this report expects to see a year-on-year production rise of 5.0% to 1.70mn tonnes.
- In 2011 this publisher is forecasting corn consumption of 1.68mn tonnes. Over the forecast period, we expect consumption to rise to 2.05mn tonnes, up 28%.
- In 2010/11 sorghum production is estimated at 360,000 tonnes, up 2.5% year-on-year. Over the forecast period, this report expects output to rise 25% to reach 440,000 tonnes in 2014/15.
- BMI now estimates poultry production in 2010 of 38,000 tonnes and expect this to rise to 40,600 tonnes in 2011, up 6.4% year-on-year.
- This publisher has revised up the Ghanaian cocoa forecast for 2010/11 and now expects production to come in at 868,000 tonnes, up an impressive 37% year-on-year.
Industry Developments:
In May, the government announced it was going to launch a Poultry Support Programme to reform and develop the poultry industry over coming years. The announcement came following a meeting between Ghana's vice president John Dramani Mahama, the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Mofa) and poultry farmers. Problems discussed included the high cost of feed and vaccines, the high cost of chicks and competition from imports. Mahama called on Mofa to release yellow corn from its stocks to ensure poultry farmers had enough for their activities.
Cocoa exports from neighbouring Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest producer, have resumed. This should lead to falling prices through the year. Looking ahead to 2011/12, BMI believes the Ghanaian government's expectation of a 1.0mn-tonne cocoa crop is slightly unrealistic, as it would require near perfect growing weather and smuggling flows to reverse.
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