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Defense and Security in North Korea
Taiyou Research, October 2012, Pages: 110
North Korea is a small country located in the East of the Asian continent. North Korea has been under scrutiny for its recent attack on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong over the highly debated maritime border region. Many theories are being held responsible for this sudden charge of the North Korea over its southern counterpart. The main reason being thought of is to boost up the military credentials of Kim Jong Un, who is to succeed leader Kim Jong Il. The other is that the raid was carried out by the North Korean People's Army (KPA), on its own initiative.
North Korea is more of a traditional Korean dynasty and not just a communist state. However, it is highly anticipated that after the death of Kim Jong II, North Korea will experience a cumulative rule. Around December 2010, the US had established that the North Korean state had assembled new uranium-enrichment facilities, hence confirming speculations that it might be putting together an underground silo for running nuclear tests. The attacks on Yeonpyeong were publicly condemned by the US, Japan and South Korea concurrently. Now, both the US and South Korean airforces are willing to strike if such a scenario is repeated by North Korea.
Recently in New York, North Korea and the US held discussions on issues including Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal. There's no doubting now that North Korea possesses the largest ballistic missile force in the developing world and appears intent on advancing its missile and satellite launch capabilities.
The fickleness of Kim Jong II’s regime makes any planning from the South Korean side almost useless. However, the biggest security threat that North Korea faces is that the control of Kim would eventually weaken, which would lead to its weakening.
If circumstances stated above do prevail, then the nation could run into a scenario of extreme chaos and conflict repeating the history of 1994 when founder Kim II Sung had passed away. Due to North Korea's aloofness from the global scenario, the country has encountered many problems, from a degrading economy to losing of great many lives in famines. What seems to be the greatest concern for this state is the fallout with its own people over the government's redenomination of the won currency which led to many losing their savings and having many dominant powers getting frustrated over its impulsiveness. If North Korea still fails in taming the beast within itself and carries on wayward, it would get it nowhere and would only end up making situations worse in the coming days.
In this industry scenario, Taiyou Research analyzes the Defense and Security industries in North Korea. The report covers the following:
- In order to understand the development of the North Korean defense and security industry, it is important to take a look at the geopolitical situation in the world, particularly in North East Asia. Our research report analyzes the emergence of a new geopolitical situation in the world through a look at the new roles to be played by the United States, China, Japan, the Koreas, India, Russia, Europe, Brazil, Turkey, Iran, the Middle East, and Africa, in the coming years.
- The emergence of new great powers around the world in the face of growing global terrorism is analyzed in the report.
- An analysis of the security market in North East Asia is important in establishing the importance of North Korea in this industry across this entire region. The geopolitical significance of North East Asia is important as there are many flashpoints in the region that could have an impact on North Korea.
- Situation on the Russia-China border, China's Western Border, China-North Korea border, China-India border, and China's growing military presence in the region is looked at.
- Japan's influence in the region cannot be overlooked as well as the importance of maintaining geopolitical status quo in the North East Asian region. All this and more is analyzed in the report Defense and Security in North Korea.
- In order to examine the defense and security industries in North Korea, it is necessary to analyze the political landscape in North Korea, including the major political changes on the horizon.
- Moving on to the analysis of the security industry in North Korea, we analyze the domestic security situation as well as the external security situation. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of the North Korea-South Korea and the North Korea and US relations, and the implications these pose for the North Korean security industry.
- We carry out a SWOT analysis of the North Korean Security Market.
- An analysis of North Korea’s Armed Forces is necessary in order to establish the growing threat of North Korea’s in the Asian region in terms of military presence. North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction are also analyzed in this section.
- Moving on to an analysis of North Korea’s defense industry, we analyze the market profile, industry trends, competition in the industry, North Korea’s arms trade, and procurement of arms in the industry.
- We carry out a SWOT analysis of the North Korean Defense Industry.
- Outlook for the North Korean Defense and Security Industry is carried out through a forecast for the Armed Forces and a forecast for defense expenditure.
Taiyou Research’s report on Defense and Security in North Korea is a complete profile of this growingly competitive industry in North Korea that is incorporating many changes in the recent years in order to make a global mark.
1. Executive Summary
2. Emergence of a New Geopolitical Scenario
2.1 Global Political Overview & Outlook
2.2 Cutbacks in Public Spending
2.3 Divided Electorates
2.4 Inflation Risks
2.5 Role of the US under Question
2.6 United States: Possible Loss of Superpower Status
2.7 Role of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) & Japan
2.8 China: A Possible Challenger to the US
2.9 Role of Japan & the Koreas
2.10 Emergence of India
2.11 Russia: Strategic Revival in Sight?
2.12 Europe: Suffering from the Debt Crises of 2010
2.13 Saudi Arabia, Egypt & Pakistan – Important for the Muslim World
2.14 Growing Role of Africa
2.15 Growing Threat of Terrorism
3. Emergence of a Multi-Polar World Order
3.1 Emergence of New Great Power
3.2 Possible Power Conflicts
3.3 Growing Cyber Warfare & Technological Challenges
3.4 Critical Political Figures
3.5 Emerging Political Outlook & End of Globalization
4. Security Market in North East Asia
4.1 Geopolitical Significance of North East Asia
4.1.1 Korean Peninsula
4.1.2 China-North Korea Border: Potential Flashpoint
4.1.3 Taiwan Strait: Potential Flashpoint
4.1.4 China’s Growing Military Presence
4.2 Disputed Islands in North East Asia
4.2.2 Diaoyutai/Senkaku Islands
4.2.3 Kuril Islands
4.3 Situation on the Russia-China Border
4.4 Situation at China’s Western Border
4.5 China’s Dominance in North East Asia Unlikely
4.6 Challenge of North Korea
4.7 Japan’s Influence in the Region
4.8 US Influence in the Region
4.9 Geopolitical Status Quo in North East Asia
5. Political Landscape in North Korea
5.1 Succession of Kim Jong Un
5.2 Importance of the Military in North Korea
5.3 Reshuffling of Kim Jong Il’s Foreign Policy Team
5.4 Further Rise of Kim Jong Un
5.5 Challenges & Threats to Political Stability
5.5.1 Autocratic Political System
5.5.2 Uncertain Succession of Kim Jong Un
5.5.3 Truf Rivalries amongst the Military
5.5.4 Economic Instability
5.5.5 Growing Cross-Border Trade with China
5.5.6 Hostile External Environment due to Nuclear Testing
5.6 Expected Political Change
6. Security Market in North Korea
6.1 Domestic Security Situation
6.2 Refugee Challenge
6.3 External Security
6.4 Dispute over Nuclear Weapons
6.5 North Korea-US Relations
6.6 North Korea-China Relations
6.7 North Korea-Japan Relations
6.8 North Korea-Russia Relations
6.9 North Korea-South Korea Relations
7. North Korea Security Market: SWOT Analysis
8. North Korea’s Armed Forces
8.1 Market Profile
8.2 North Korea’s Weapons of Mass Destruction
8.3 North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons
8.4 North Korea’s Chemical & Biological Weapons
9. North Korea’s Defense Industry
9.1 Market Profile
9.2 Recent Industry Developments
9.3 Trading of Arms
9.4 Industry Trends
10. North Korea Defense Industry: SWOT Analysis
11. Major Industry Players
12. Industry Forecast
12.1 Forecast for Armed Forces
12.2 Forecast for Defense Expenditure
14. Research Methodology