Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, July 2011, Pages: 65
The Cameroon Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Cameroon's oil and gas industry.
The latest Cameroon Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.89% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.68% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.63mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.62mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.09mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.08mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 10.74mn b/d. After dropping to an estimated 9.66mn b/d in 2011 because of the loss of Libyan volumes, it is set to rise to 12.91mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 6.02mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 8.15mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 9.85mn b/d by 2015. Nigeria has the greatest production growth potential, with Angolan exports also set to climb significantly.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 120.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 162.3bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 208.7bcm in 2010 should reach 295.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 105bcm to 151bcm in 2015. In 2010, Cameroon consumed an estimated 0.03% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 0.16% by 2015. It contributed an estimated 0.02% to 2010 regional gas production and by 2015 will account for 0.09% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket and Brent price forecasts. We expect Brent crude to average US$106/bbl in 2011, with OPEC basket averaging US$101.90/bbl. Mid-year increases in supply present downside risks to this forecast. In 2012, we expect OPEC basket to average US$95/bbl, with Brent averaging US$97.6/bbl. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.5%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the US is now expected to slow down, but growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, putting Brent at US$106/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$95.30, although these differentials are subject to change.
Cameroon’s real GDP rose by 3.2% in 2010 and BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.0% from 2010 to 2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 28,000b/d in 2010 to 36,000b/d in 2015. State oil company Société Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH) operates in partnership with a small group of international oil companies (IOCs). It is also responsible for selling the government’s share of oil output and holds a 20% stake in projects operated by Total, Pecten and Perenco. Thanks to IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output of around 71,000b/d in 2010 is expected to peak at 88,000b/d in 2015. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly over the longer term, potentially providing the basis for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 2016.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Cameroon’s oil and gas liquids production of 12%, with volumes peaking at an estimated 88,000b/d in 2015 before slipping to 80,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 64%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 46,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 5.0bcm by the end of the period. We expect Cameroon to export about 4.6bcm of gas by 2020 in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Cameroon is at the bottom of BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It shares 11th and last place with Sudan. The country now takes 11th place, ahead only of Sudan, in the updated upstream ratings, although it is just one point behind Equatorial Guinea. The county’s score benefits from reasonable gas output growth prospects, a very healthy gas reserves to production ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The country’s risk environment is, however, fragile. Cameroon is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream ratings, with few high scores and immediate progress unlikely. It is ranked equal eighth alongside Gabon, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, nominal GDP and the absence of competition in the downstream segment.
Executive Summary
Cameroon Energy Market Overview
- Regional Market Overview
Oil Supply and Demand
- Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2008-2015 (000b/d)
- Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2008-2015 (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
- Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2008-2015 (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm)
- Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2008-2015 (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
- Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2008-2015 (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
- Composite Scores
- Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
- Upstream Scores
- Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings
Cameroon Upstream Rating – Overview
- Cameroon Upstream Rating – Rewards
- Cameroon Upstream Rating – Risks
- Downstream Scores
- Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings
- Cameroon Downstream Rating – Overview
- Cameroon Downstream Rating – Rewards
- Cameroon Downstream Rating – Risks
Business Environment
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Foreign Trade Regime
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Table: Cameroon Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
- Other Energy
- Table: Cameroon Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
- Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Cameroon
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Cameroon – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players – Cameroon Energy Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
- Perenco
- Victoria Oil & Gas – Summary
- Total – Summary
- Sterling Energy – Summary
- Petronas – Summary
- Noble Energy – Summary
- Bowleven Oil And Gas – Summary
- Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
- Regional Oil Demand
- Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2013-2020 (000b/d)
- Regional Oil Supply
- Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2013-2020 (000b/d)
- Regional Refining Capacity
- Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2013-2020 (000b/d)
- Regional Gas Demand
- Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2013-2020 (bcm)
- Regional Gas Supply
- Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2013-2020 (bcm)
Cameroon Country Overview
- Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
- Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
- Introduction
- Ratings Overview
- Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
- Indicators
- Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
- Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Energy Industry
- Cross checks
- Sources
Product Samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW5
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
