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Canada Power Report 2011
Business Monitor International, July 2011, Pages: 43
Canada Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's power industry.
The newly published Canada Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country’s power consumption will increase from an estimated 548TWh in 2010 to 632TWh by the end of the forecast period, assuming 1.4% average annual growth. After power industry usage and system losses, we see surplus supply rising from the theoretical 72TWh level seen in 2010 to 87TWh by 2020, assuming 1.5% average annual growth in power generation during the period.
Canada’s power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 620TWh, having risen 2.6% from the depressed 2009 level. BMI is forecasting an average 1.4% annual increase to 664TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to grow by 0.8% per annum during the period to 2015, with growth accelerating slightly later in the decade.
Gas-fired generation is expected to rise from an estimated 37.4TWh to 36.2TWh over the period to 2015 and, by 2020, is likely to have reached 57.0TWh, representing 7.9% of total generation. There is likely to be a threefold increase in gas power generation over the next decade, according to the Canadian Energy Research Institute. Gas export capability is therefore declining at a time when the US is demanding more gas. Much of the gas use in power applications is the result of rising energy usage at the oil sands facilities.
The 89.4TWh of Canadian nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 98.5TWh by 2015, with its share of total generation rising from 14.4% to 14.8% over the period. The Pickering B reactors in Ontario are licensed to mid-2013. In February 2010, Ontario Power Generation (OPG) decided against full refurbishment, but will spend CAD300mn on keeping them going for another 10 years before finally closing and decommissioning them. There are proposals to build several nuclear reactors to enter service in the next decade. Four reactors are planned in Ontario, one is proposed in New Brunswick and one (or possibly four smaller reactors) in Alberta. Total capacity of the new reactors may amount to as much as 9GW. However, there remain some doubts over Canada’s nuclear commitment.
Canada is now targeting a 20% reduction in its CO2 levels by 2020 and 60-70% reduction by 2050. Consequently, electricity producers will be forced to phase out their ageing, high-emitting coal-fired plants to meet the country's new standards. Although costly, and yet to be proved on a commercial scale, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is thus increasingly seen as a crucial technology.
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