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Viewing report
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Analysis and Forecast of China PTA Market 2011 - 2013
China Market Report, Aug 2011, Pages: 31
The PTA production capacity of China was 16.4 million tons in 2010; an increase of 1.15 million tons year-on-year, the growth rate was 7.5%. In 2011, the new PTA production capacity will be 3.15 million tons and in 2012 to expand 5.1 million tons; by 2013, China PTA production capacity is expected to reach 30 million tons.
As the strong demands from PTA’s downstream industry, the gap between supply and demand will be greater. Meanwhile, China PTA supply has been a high dependence on imports before 2005, but since 2005, with the expansion of China's PTA production capacity and the consumption slowdown from its downstream industries, the dependence of import began to decrease, the import dependency dropped from 50 % in 2005 to 34% in 2010. According to available statistics data that to predict by the end of 2013, China PTA apparent consumption will reach 25.5 million tons, production capacity will reach 30 million tons approximately, assumption that account 75% capacity utilization rate, the import dependency of China's PTA can be dropped to 15%
In 2010, China produced 25.13 million tons of polyester terylene, a year-on-year increase of 3.09 million tons, the growth rate was 14%. The compound annual growth rate was 15% from 2005 to 2010. The contributor of the booming is the great demand from its downstream textile industry. At the same time, in 2010, PTA production capacity was 16.4 million tons, and 2011 will reach 19.55 million tons, in theory, it can supply 19.29 to 23 million tons polyester terylene, but still can not meet the demand for polyester terylene. In 2011, a total of 4.7 million tons new production capacity of polyester will put into production, among most of are PFY, after the new production capacity put into production, the total production capacity of Chinese polyester industry will reach to 33.5 million tons / year. So in 2011, the gap between supply and demand of PTA will still exist.
PTA prices in the first half of 2011 has been a trend from high to low, with most of the PTA production capacity will gradually put on the market in the second half of 2011, as well as the high price of international oil, which elevated the price of entirely petrochemical industrial chain, if in the second half of 2011, the oil prices have come down, which will drive down the price of petrochemical industrial chain.
The production capacity of PTA may be excess in 2012, but, the demand from polyester terylene can still digest the new PTA production capacity between 2011-2012, while the upstream PX costs and the strong demand of terylene will be supporting the price, therefore, it is expected that the average price of PTA in 2011 will be slightly higher than the 2010 average price.
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