• +353-1-416-8900(GMT OFFICE HOURS)
  • 1-800-526-8630(US/CAN TOLL FREE)
  • 1-917-300-0470(EST OFFICE HOURS)
The Mobile Traffic Deluge & the Implications for the Communications Industry 2011 Product Image

The Mobile Traffic Deluge & the Implications for the Communications Industry 2011

  • Published: July 2011
  • 54 Pages
  • New Paradigm Resources Group, Inc. (NPRG)

This study analyzes and projects the growth of Mobile Data Demand.

While there has been considerable discussion and forecasting indicating that demand growth over the next five years will be very large, we were not satisfied that the methodologies of consensus type forecasts were sound or well-explained.

Correcting Errors in Consensus Mobile Data Forecasts In particular, we were troubled by the assumption by some forecasters, including prominently the widely-cited Cisco “Visual Networking Index” (VNI), that data demand growth for the Mobile Internet would parallel the pattern of growth experienced in the late 1990s by the original Internet. We developed an original methodology for analyzing Mobile Data Demand growth – from the bottom-up.

This bottom-up approach is based upon analyzing the future traffic flows through individual Cell Sites.

This methodology takes into account the unique combination of factors that are propelling demand growth at an unprogrammed rate.

These factors, discussed in the later sections of the Study, include:

- Proliferation of new mobile device types
- Proliferation of mobile data, imaging, READ MORE >

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

CORRECTING ERRORS IN CONSENSUS MOBILE DATA FORECASTS

KEY CONCLUSIONS

THE DEMAND FUNNEL: CALIBRATING THE RATE OF CHANGE
Figure 1: The Demand FUNNEL

CHAPTER 1: MOBILE INTERNET – THE NEW CHALLENGES
1 THE EMERGENCE OF A NEW MOBILE DATA ECOSYSTEM
Figure 2: Mobile Data – Three Sub-Ecosystems
Figure 3: OLD Ecosystem – CARRIERS in Control
CONFLICT BETWEEN CARRIERS AND NEW DEVICE AND APPS PROVIDERS
Table 1: 10-Year Equity Value Creation: Mobile Carriers vs. Growth Companies
THE NEW POWER RELATIONSHIPS
Figure 4: New Relationship of 3 Ecosystems
THE COMING DEMAND DELUGE AND SHOCK
THE MOBILE “TIME WARP” POST-2008
Table 2: Mobile's Time Warp & Shocks

CHAPTER 2: CONSENSUS FORECASTING DEFECTS – CISCO VNI STUDY
KEY DEFECTS IN CONSENSUS MOBILE DATA FORECASTING – CISCO VNI STUDY
Table 3: Cisco VNI Forecast of Mobile Data Traffic Growth 2010-2015
Table 4: Computation of Average Cell Site Traffic Based on Cisco VNI Study 2015
Table 5: Cisco VNI Study Comparison of Fixed Internet & Mobile Data Growth Rates
CRITICAL FLAW – EQUATING MOBILE INTERNET AND FIXED INTERNET GROWTH OUTLOOK
Table 6: Major Differences in Drivers Between Historic Fixed Internet and Projected Mobile Data Growth
RESPECTED SOURCES INDICATE MOBILE DEMAND FORECASTS ARE FAR TOO LOW
Table 7: Estimated Breakdown of U.S. Cell Sites 2015 by Traffic Category
BOTTOM-UP APPROACH VERSUS THE CISCO FORECAST: RESULTS COMPARED
Table 8: Cisco vs. Our Estimates of Traffic per U.S. Cell Sites 2015 by Category of Cell Site

CHAPTER 3: MOBILE NETWORKS – TRACKING DEMAND GROWTH
UNDERSTANDING MOBILE NETWORKS – USING BACKHAUL DEMAND AS A METRIC
DISRUPTIVE DEVELOPMENTS THAT DRIVE UN-PROGRAMMED GROWTH
Figure 5: Basic Wireless Network Architecture
TRACKING THE DEMAND DELUGE THROUGH BACKHAUL GROWTH
GROWTH IN CELL SITES – PART OF THE PICTURE
Table 9: U.S. Cell Site Growth, June 2000 to June 2010
Table 10: U.S. Cell Site Projected Growth, 2010-2015
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH
Table 11: U.S. Mobile Subscriber Growth, 2005-2015 Projected
DEVICE GROWTH
Table 12: Smartphones, Tablets, Other HHs, Growth Projection U.S. 2010-2015
Table 13: Smartphone Average Pricing (After Discounts) vs. All Handhelds
GROWTH IN MULTI-DEVICE SUBSCRIBERS
EXPANSION OF BROADBAND APPS
Table 14: Apps Usage - % of Users Using a Given App
Table 15: Leading Apps, % of Total Data Bandwidth Used
AUGMENTED REALITY EMERGES
INCREASED WIRELESS SUBSTITUTION
Table 16: Percent of U.S. Households That Are Wireless Only
REGULATORY PRESSURES TO EXPAND BROADBAND

CHAPTER 4: THE BOTTOM-UP DEMAND FORECAST MODEL
THE CARRIER DATA-DRIVEN DILEMMA
THREE PRIMARY ELEMENTS OF DEMAND GROWTH
METHODOLOGY - MODELING POTENTIAL BACKHAUL DEMAND IN 2015
DEMAND POTENTIAL OF KEY APPS
Table 17: Breakdown of Key Mobile Apps by Category
Table 18: Bandwidth Assumptions for Key Mobile Apps, 2010 vs. 2015
Table19: Projected Device Breakdown by Type, 2015
MODELING TRAFFIC THROUGH A SINGLE CELL SITE – 3 CASES EXAMINED
Table 20: Cell Site User Assumptions 2015 – 3 Cases
TWO USAGE SCENARIOS FOR EACH CASE
CASE 1 – 40 USERS AT PEAK
Table 21: Case 1 Breakdown of Devices by Category, Single Cell Site at Peak 2015
Table 22: Case 1, Scenario 1 – Peak Usage at Single Cell Site 2015
Table 23: Case 1, Scenario 2 – Peak Usage at Single Cell Site 2015
Table 24: Case 1 Peak Usage at Single Cell Site 2015 - Two Scenarios
Table 25: Case 1 Augmented Reality Impact on Demand Single Cell Site 2015
Table 26: Case 1 Backhaul Traffic Requirements 2015
CASE 2 – 80 USERS AT PEAK
Table 27: Case 2 Breakdown of Devices by Category, Single Cell Site at Peak 2015
Table 28: Case 2, Scenario 1 – Peak Usage at Single Cell Site 2015
Table 29: Case 2, Scenario 2 – Peak Usage at Single Cell Site 2015
Table 30: Case 2 Peak Usage at Single Cell Site 2015 - Two Scenarios
Table 31: Case 2 Augmented Reality Impact on Demand - Single Cell Site 2015
Table 32: Case 2 Backhaul Traffic Requirements 2015
CASE 3 – 120 USERS AT PEAK
Table 33: Case 3 Breakdown of Devices by Category, Single Cell Site at Peak 2015
Table 34: Case 3, Scenario 1 – Peak Usage at Single Cell Site 2015
Table 35: Case 3, Scenario 2 – Peak Usage at Single Cell Site 2015
Table 36: Case 3 Augmented Reality Impact on Demand - Single Cell Site 2015
Table 37: Case 3 Backhaul Traffic Requirements 2015
SUMMARY OF 3 CASES
Table 38: Backhaul Demand 2015 - Summary of 3 Cases

CHAPTER 5: ANALYZING TRAFFIC GROWTH IMPACT ON U.S. MOBILE INDUSTRY
OVERALL DEMAND REQUIREMENTS
ESTIMATING CELL SITE DISTRIBUTION BY LEVEL OF TRAFFIC LOAD
Table 39: Cell Site Density – Conn. Sample vs. U.S. Totals
Table 40: AT&T & Verizon Cell Site Data From Sample Area
Table 41: Verizon Wireless National Cell Site & Subscriber Data
Table 42: Population Breakdown by Density Tiers 2015
BREAKDOWN OF CELL SITES BY TRAFFIC LOAD CATEGORY
Table 43: Estimated Breakdown of U.S. Cell Sites 2015 - by Traffic Load Category
Table 44: U.S. Backhaul Requirements by Category of Cell Sites 2015
COMPARING CISCO VNI AND BOTTOM-UP MODEL RESULTS
Table 45: Cisco VNI Study Contrasted – Peak Demand, by Cell Site Category
Table 46: Cisco VNI Study Contrasted – Total Traffic per Month

CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS
POTENTIAL DEMAND” – INDUSTRY ALTERNATIVES
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AS A FACTOR
OPTIONS FOR ADDRESSING THE DEMAND DELUGE; “OFFLOADING” AND OTHERS
THE POTENTIAL OF OFFLOADING ANALYZED
PRICING CHANGES ANALYZED
COMPETITIVE ENTRY AND REGULATORY POLICY AS FACTORS

APPENDIX A COLLATERAL IMPACT OF THE BACKHAUL EFFECT: THE FUTURE OF TELCOS

APPENDIX B: EVOLUTION OF BACKHAUL TECHNOLOGY
MOBILE NETWORK ECOSYSTEM
Figure 6: Mobile Network Ecosystem Architecture, 2011-2015
END USER SYSTEMS
RAN WORLD
Table 47: RAN Standards Status
BACKHAUL CORE
EVOLUTION OF RANS
BACKHAUL AND MOBILE TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION
BACKHAUL FACILITY DEMAND

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

RELATED PRODUCTS

Our Clients

Our clients' logos