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Switzerland Telecommunications Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, July 2011, Pages: 85
Business Monitor International's Switzerland Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Switzerland's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q311 update to the Swiss telecoms market report has included the introduction of a five-year ARPU forecast in the industry forecast section of our report. It also contains analysis of trends in the Swiss telecoms market using full-year 2010 figures based on market data published by major service providers Swisscom, Orange Switzerland and UPC Switzerland (Cablecom). The Federal Communications Commission has not published any update to market data since the end of June 2010.
The Swiss mobile market recorded slower growth in 2010 than previously expected. According to market data from market leader Swisscom and third-ranked Orange Switzerland, as well as BMI estimates for Sunrise, the market grew by 3.9% y-o-y in 2010 to reach 9.385mn. BMI notes the market grew by 9.2% in 2007, 6.6% in 2008 and 4.5% in 2009. The steady decline in the rates of growth is indicative of the growing impact of market saturation and the discounting of inactive lines by operators. With mobile penetration hovering about 120%, we expect annual growth rates to stay below 3% for the most part of the next five years. By 2015 we expect the number of mobile subscribers to reach 10.7mn, reflecting a penetration rate of 136%. BMI expects higher value services on postpaid subscriptions to drive growth in the future. This will have a positive impact on ARPU, which we expect to stabilise over the medium term. Our newly introduced ARPU forecast for the Swiss market will remain above CHF40 by the end of 2015, making it one of the highest in Western Europe.
Swisscom maintains its dominance of the mobile sector with a market share of 62.1%. The operator has also taken the lion share of net additions over the past two years. Sunrise remains in second position, after extending its market share at the expense of Orange. At the end of Q410 Sunrise had a market share of 21.2%, 4.5 percentage points ahead of third-placed Orange, with a market share which dropped to 16.7%. Meanwhile, a number of new MVNOs launched services in the Swiss market in H210, many of them on Orange's network.
The deployment of higher-speed optical-fibre and cable networks is expected to be one of the most important developments driving the growth of Switzerland’s fixed broadband access market over the next few years. Swisscom FTTH network already covers major cities including Berne, Zurich, Geneva, St Gallen and Fribourg as well as the municipalities of Pfyn and Thusis. Swisscom's ultimate aim is to connect one-third of the population (more than 1mn households) by the end of 2015. In March 2011 it was announced that Basel utilities provider IWB and Swisscom officially started to build a city wide fibre-optic network in Basel. The initial phase of the project is installing cables to all buildings in Kleinbasel, Gundeldingen and other Grossbasel quarters. By 2012 the network is expected to be available to about 55,000 homes and business (about half the total number) in the city, allowing them access to new broadband and phone services. In April 2011 Swisscom announced plans to roll out fibre network across the Lucerne community of Ebikon by the end of 2014. This follows a successful fibre-optic pilot project in the Obfalken quarter. The network will be rolled out to about 5,700 homes and business in Ebikon.
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