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Sweden Telecommunications Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, July 2011, Pages: 111
Business Monitor International's Sweden Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Sweden's telecommunications industry.
The Q311 BMI report on Sweden's telecommunications market contains the latest data published by the country's incumbent operator, TeliaSonera, Swedish based international operator Tele2, Norwegian incumbent operator Telenor and international conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa's subsidiary Hi3G, covering Q111. We also include the latest mobile content data and information on the fixed-line and broadband markets published by the regulator, for the period ended December 2010. Our forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets have been revised this quarter to reflect market trends and new data published the regulator. Meanwhile, we introduced our five-year mobile ARPU forecast, which is based on the historical ARPU published by the country's three mobile operators and represents more than 90% of the market by subscribers.
There were 12.788mn mobile subscribers in Sweden at the end of March 2011, according to subscriber figures published TeliaSonera, Tele2 and Telenor. This brought market penetration up to 135.6%, from 134.7% at the end of 2010. TeliaSonera recorded the strongest growth with net addition of 95,000 subscribers, equivalent of 72% of total net additions during Q111. Tele2, Telenor and 3 also reported positive growth, resulting in overall market growth of 1% q-o-q, same as in Q410. We expect the market to grow by 3.8% in 2011, bring penetration rate to 139.4%. Over the next five years, we forecast the market to grow at an average rate of 1.5% annually to bring mobile penetration in Sweden to about 142% by 2015. According to market data published by the PTS, there were about 7.3mn 3G (UMTS and 3G/CDMA) subscribers in Sweden at the end of 20010. This was equivalent of 58% of the total mobile subscriber base. The demand for mobile data and the increasing uptake of smartphones and other data-enabled devices are the main drivers of 3G subscriptions. We expect this trend to continue during our forecast period, with 3G subscriptions accounting for up to 92% of total mobile subscriptions by 2015.
Market data for FY10 published by the regulator reveal there were 4.924mn fixed-lines in Sweden at the end of 2010, down by 4.2% y-o-y. The decline in demand is representative of continued demand for alternative services that are both cheaper and more convenient to access, such as mobile and VoIP. Notably, while overall demand for fixed lines fell, much of this related to PSTN and ISDN lines, while demand for IP-based telephony increased. TeliaSonera's VoIP subscriptions increased 75.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 277,000 in Q410, with 69,000 subscriptions added in H210.To a degree this would suggest that the decline actually represents a shift in the type of connection, rather than a permanent loss of subscribers. Perhaps the most significant data published by the regulator is for mobile broadband subscriptions which grew by 78.5% y-o-y in 2010 to become the predominant form of broadband access in Sweden. From a market share of 35.5% of total broadband connections at the end of 2009, mobile broadband now accounted for 50.8% of total of total connections at the end of 2010. Fibre and cable TV broadband also registered positive growth in 2010, while xDSL-based connections decreased for second consecutive year in 2010.
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