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Italy Power Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, July 2011, Pages: 42
Business Monitor International's Italy Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Italy's power industry.
The newly published Italy Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country’s power consumption will increase from an estimated 293TWh in 2010 to 373TWh by the end of the forecast period, assuming 2.4% average annual growth. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a supply shortfall rising from the 20TWh level seen in 2010 to 57TWh by 2020, assuming 1.5% average annual growth in power generation during the period.
Italian power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 273TWh, having risen 1.3% from the depressed 2009 level. BMI is forecasting an average 1.6% annual increase to 296TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to grow by 1.3% per annum during the period to 2015, with growth slowing slightly later in the decade. According to BMI estimates, end-2010 installed capacity was around 104GW, with an increase to at least 123GW expected by 2015.
Gas-fired generation is expected to rise from an estimated 142TWh to 161TWh over the period to 2015 and, by 2020, is likely to have reached 176TWh, representing 55.5% of total generation. Oil will eventually become a far less important element of Italian power generation. It currently accounts for around 9.9% of total generation, easing to 8.6% by 2015 thanks to gas and renewables growing rapidly. We believe there will be no more than 25TWh of oil-fired power generation by the end of the forecast period.
In the wake of Japan’s Fukushima accident, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has been forced to accept the rejection of his nuclear power plans in a popular referendum. The June 2011 referendum turnout was about 57%, a significant rise on participation in previous referendums – and a firm rejection of Berlusconi's call for voters to boycott the referendum. Had turnout been less than 50%, the result would have been invalid. More than 94% of voters opposed the government's plans to resume nuclear power generation. Italy now joins Germany in rejecting membership of the nuclear energy club, though both will continue to import it from other countries.
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