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France Power Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, July 2011, Pages: 44
Business Monitor International's France Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's power industry.
The newly published France Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country’s power consumption will increase from an estimated 453TWh in 2010 to 512TWh by the end of the forecast period, assuming 1.2% average annual growth. After power industry USge and system losses, we see surplus supply rising from an estimated 83TWh level in 2010 to 100TWh by 2020, assuming 1.3% average annual growth in power generation during the period.
French power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 536TWh, having risen 5.0% from the depressed 2009 level. BMI is forecasting an average 1.7% annual increase to 581TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to grow 1.0% per annum during the period to 2015, with growth accelerating slightly later in the decade. According to BMI estimates, end-2010 installed capacity was around 120GW, with an increase to at least 130GW expected by 2015. Gas-fired generation is expected to rise from an estimated 1.3TWh to 27.2TWh over the period to 2015 and, by 2020, is likely to have reached 31.9TWh, representing 5.2% of total generation. Coal-fired generation accounted for 5.0% of the country’s total generation in 2010, according to BMI estimates. We expect the fuel’s market share to be no more than 4.1% by 2015, firing an estimated 23.8TWh at the end of the forecast period.
Expansion of existing nuclear capacity should take generation from an estimated 411TWh in 2010 to at least 446TWh by 2015, with nuclear power’s share of total generation rising from 76.7% to 76.8%. By 2020, nuclear will still account for more than three quarters of power generation. In July 2010 EdF said that it was assessing the prospect of 60-year lifetimes for all its existing reactors. This would involve replacement of all steam generators (three in each 900MW reactor, four in each 1.3GW unit) and other refurbishment, costing EUR400-600mn per unit to take them beyond 40 years. EdF is currently replacing steam generators at two units per year, and plans to increase this to three units in 2016.
A significant contributor to national electricity supply, the hydro-power segment is expected to attract ongoing investment during the forecast period, with generation increasing from 58.3TWh to 60.7TWh, taking the power market share from 10.9% to 10.5% by 2015.
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